Tag: Shiv-Sena

Decoding Jharkhand verdict: Why JMM-Congress poll win is a game changer.

Source – indiatoday.in

Jharkhand has voted the BJP out in a big-impact mandate, six months after the party handed a massive Lok Sabha election victory to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The verdict favoured the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance which rode a Chhattisgarh-like tribal backlash as the BJP faltered on many political fronts.

The debacle has been made tougher to swallow for the BJP by the loss of sitting Chief Minister Raghubar Das. He lost Jamshedpur East with a margin of 15,833 votes. He had won the seat with a margin of 70,000 votes in 2014. It proved conclusively that the BJP government in the state suffered crippling anti-incumbency.

The Jharkhand loss is yet another derailment the once unbeatable Modi-Shah electoral juggernaut has suffered and this will impact the BJP, the NDA and the overall politics.

A look at India’s political map shows the BJP’s rise and slide in the last three years. In 2017, the Modi-Shah duo had the BJP/NDA flag fluttering over almost 70 per cent of the country. By the time the Shiv Sena took charge of Maharashtra with the NCP and the Congress, the saffron footprint was down to a little over 40 per cent. Jharkhand will bring it down to 35 per cent.

The Jharkhand verdict underlines a new pattern that should worry the BJP. The party’s failure to keep allies is being attributed to the heavier muscle the majority 2019 verdict has given to the BJP. The party has been trumped by regional player JMM like Shiv Sena and NCP in Maharashtra. And again PM Modi’s bête noire, the Congress, has a hand in the BJP’s loss, like in Maharashtra.

WHAT WENT WRONG

The BJP over estimated its strength to begin with. Its ally AJSU wanted 20-odd seats. The BJP didn’t want to give more than 15. Tight fisted and big brotherly, the BJP made a Plan B and decided to go alone.

Some party leaders said that it felt an out-of-alliance AJSU will make the contest multi-party and split the votes against it. The mandate shows this was a blunder. The BJP plus AJSU as allies in 2014 had polled 35 per cent (BJP 31 per cent and AJSU 4 per cent). This time, the BJP polled 34 per cent and AJSU 9 per cent but their seats plummeted.

Speaking to India Today TV, BJP spokesperson Aman Sinha denied that the party has been handed a drubbing. He said, “The party’s vote share has gone up.”

But a close look at the results shows the share is up as it contested 81 seats compared to 70 last time.

The sitting CM’s loss showcases the huge anti-incumbency against the BJP government in the state despite the PM and the central government still enjoying immense popularity.

The BJP’s defeat has multilayered reasons. In 2014, the party chose Raghubar Das, a nontribal leader, as chief minister for a tribal-dominated state. It created a disruptive political template to transcend the caste divide and reduce the whip of the dominant voting group.

But after the five-year rule, the BJP has won just two of the tribal-dominated seats. The decimation is a sign that the BJP’s disruptive template flopped as its actions antagonised the dominant tribals.

The changes it proposed to the Shanthal Parganas Tenancy Act and Chhota Nagpur Tenancy Act threatened tribals’ right over land. The tribals didn’t get a share in jobs in the state. Para teachers’ and Anganwadi workers’ protests faced hostile police crackdown. The state government brought the anti-conversion bill which was ferociously opposed by the tribals.

The government’s delivery of welfare schemes was terrible in a state which has 46 per cent people below the poverty line (the national average is 28 per cent). The government could not create jobs and economic achchhe din as 44 per cent investment projects remained stalled between 2016-19.

The Opposition could paint the BJP anti-tribal led by an “outsider CM” as Das was born in Chhattisgarh.

The JMM whose founder Shibu Soren had led a huge uprising of the tribals first against “mahajani pratha” or money lenders’ oppression and then the battle for a separate state of Jharkhand became the immediate beneficiary. Allies Congress and RJD brought the anxiety driven minority vote as the BJP raised issues like Article 370, Ram Mandir, CAA and NRC.

The PM and the BJP tried in vain to make up for local dissatisfaction by bringing in national issues and a polarising push. The party has paid a price for poor brand management yet again.

Rajya Sabha MP Swapan Dasgupta, speaking to India Today TV, said, “The state unit can’t be held solely responsible for the loss. Everyone has to share the blame. The BJP has to realise that it needs a local profile which is distinct and in sync with the national party. When it comes to alliance, the party needs to realise regional aspirations can play within the national fold in the presence of a dominant party”

JHARKHAND POLL RESULT IMPLICATION

The political map of India presents a worrying picture for the BJP. From Rajasthan in the west to Bengal in the east, one can travel without driving through a BJP-ruled state.

Due to this, the perception about the Modi-Shah duo’s capability to create successful political strategies has taken a serious hit ahead of crucial elections in Delhi, West Bengal, Bihar and Tamil Nadu.

The biggest impact will be on the BJP’s relations with existing and future allies. The party is no more the same heavy-duty coalition magnet. Since 2017, it has lost PDP, TDP, Shiv Sena and AJSU.

Allies like Nitish Kumar, for example, may feel emboldened and seek more or equal share in seats in Bihar. Already Nitish has spoken against NRC and it may force the BJP to put the controversial move that is close to its heart on the back burner. Future partners may also ask for greater space.

Another state loss means the BJP’s position in Rajya Sabha may not improve anytime in near future and keep the party dependent on non-NDA players like the AIADMK and the BJD.

The Modi government’s legislative capability will take a hit as Constitutional amendments need ratification by 50 per cent state assemblies.

The Jharkhand loss is ill-timed too. The central government is facing a negative perception over the economic slowdown and nationwide protests. This may impact the BJP cadre’s morale.

Amit Shah Says Jharkhand Will Again Pick ‘Twin-Engine’ Govt, Confident of Old Ally’s Return.

Source – news18.com

New Delhi: The BJP may have lost its old ally, the Shiv Sena, in Maharashtra, but party chief Amit Shah is confident of a reunion with estranged ally AJSU in Jharkhand, which goes to polls from November 30.

Speaking at News18’s Agenda Jharkhand summit on Thursday, the BJP chief expressed confidence that the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), which is contesting the upcoming Assembly elections alone, will return to the NDA fold after the elections.

“I am confident that the BJP will return to power with a thumping majority in Jharkhand and will not need support… Jharkhand will again chose the twin-engine government. But I am also confident that AJSU will be back by our side,” Shah said.

Invoking Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Shah said it was the former prime minister and BJP stalwart who ensured the creation of Jharkhand. “The state could not be created when Congress was at power in the centre despite the sacrifices of thousands of youth. It was only after Atal ji came to power that Jharkhand was created. Since 2014, PM Narendra Modi has given shape to the state and CM Raghubar Das is taking it forward,” he said.

Shah added that the state’s tribal population and residents feel cheated when they see a party like the JMM, which fought for Jharkhand’s creation, rubbing shoulders with the Congress.

The BJP chief also said at the event that incumbent Raghubar Das is the party’s CM face for the upcoming elections as well. Jharkhand will vote in five-phased elections beginning this Saturday and the counting of votes will be held on December 23.

In its manifesto, the BJP has promised to end Naxal violence in the state, provide job or self-employment opportunities to one member of the each BPL (below poverty line) family, launch of the Krishi Bima Yojna to provide full insurance cover to crops, and construction of water grid to every cultivable plot of land.

The manifesto also promises 33 per cent reservation to women in government jobs, 70 new Eklavya Schools by 2022, free job training camps for tribal students, construction of tribal hostels in every district, two skill development centres in each district and a new sports university. It assured Rs 1,000 crore fund to provide modern facilities at government schools and colleges, and setting up of an agro industrial corridor.

Maharashtra political drama may impact BJP-JDU alliance in Bihar.

Source – indiatoday.in

he breaking of pre-poll alliance between the BJP and the Shiv Sena after the declaration of the 2019 Maharashtra Assembly election results on October 24 has led to some serious mulling over the fate of the BJP and its alliance partners in others states. The concern looks more serious in Bihar where the BJP-JDU combine is in power at present than other states.

Bihar goes to polls in just about 10 months and the breaking up of 30-year-old BJP-Shiv Sena alliance has become the biggest talking point in the state with many speculating what will happen to the BJP-JDU alliance. Barring four years between 2013 and 2017, the JDU and the BJP are alliance partners for 22 years.

JDU president and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar had severed ties with the BJP after it became clear that then Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi would be elevated as the prime ministerial candidate of the NDA for 2014 Lok Sabha election.

Nitish Kumar’s JDU has always donned the cap of the big brother in Bihar since he came to power in 2005 with BJP choosing to remain second fiddle. Though the BJP and the JDU contested equal number of seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections (17-17), it should not be perceived that both parties were at par.

The BJP with 22 MPs in 2014 had to sacrifice five sitting seats to accommodate the JDU, which turned out to be the biggest gainer. It had just two MPs in 2014 and managed to win 16 of the 17 seats in Bihar in 2019.

However, only a few months back, the BJP and the JDU had engaged in massive war of words over who would lead the NDA in the next assembly polls in Bihar. BJP’s Dalit face Sanjay Paswan suggested Nitish Kumar should make way for a BJP chief minister in 2020 and graduate to national politics.

The remarks by Sanjay Paswan left the JDU fuming and the normalcy returned only after Union Home Minister and BJP president Amit Shah said the BJP-JDU alliance in Bihar is “atal” (immovable) and that the Bihar Assembly election will be contested under the leadership of Nitish Kumar.

Amit Shah’s effort to put an end to all sorts of speculation over Nitish Kumar’s role in the NDA for 2020 Bihar Assembly election was seen as the BJP’s inability to gain foothold in the state where it faced a massive defeat in 2015 state polls following split with the JDU.

Though in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP made a clean sweep winning all the 17 seats it contested, the party still believes assembly election is a totally different ball game. The party does not want to risk going alone in the election and prefers to bank of the image of “Sushasan Babu” Nitish Kumar. The combination has worked well for the alliance in 2005 and 2010 when it registered emphatic victories.

However, following the Maharashtra episode, the BJP in Bihar has started targeting the JDU signaling that any move mirroring the Shiv Sena could spell disaster for the regional party.

Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Kumar Modi congratulated Devendra Fadnavis after his Saturday swearing in with a twisted tweet taking a veiled aim at Nitish Kumar too. He said, “Sharad Pawar like Nitish Kumar knew that BJP is more reliable than Congress. Shiv Sena was like RJD. Very difficult to work with party like Shiv Sena or RJD, full of lumpens.”

Sources say, Sushil Modi, considered close to Nitish Kumar, through this tweet obliquely hinted at Bihar chief minister advising him to keep distance from the Congress, which has never appeared averse to Nitish Kumar for his secular credentials. Sushil Kumar Modi also warned Nitish Kumar against allying again with the RJD the way he did in 2015.

Speculation is rife that BJP firebrand leader and Union minister Giriraj Singh’s comments after Fadnavis took oath as Maharshtra chief minister was also aimed at Nitish Kumar. Singh said, “Greed and arrogance invite disaster.”

Lok Janshakti Party leader and Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan’s statement is too being seen as a veiled message to the JDU national president. “Animal which is indecisive whether to go left or right gets killed on the road,” Paswan wrote on Twitter.

The JDU too obliquely criticized BJP for allying with NCP (Ajit Pawar) and relinquishing its ideology for power.

In such circumstances, the bone of contention could be the seat-sharing agreement between the BJP and the JDU. Both parties would be keen to grab a larger piece of the cake. Remember, some seats also have to be given to the LJP, another alliance partner of the NDA in Bihar.

The BJP would be keen to settle for the seat-sharing formula based on the Lok Sabha elections where both parties fought equal number of seats. However, the JDU would want to keep the 2010 formula as the reference point when both parties fought elections together. The JDU contested on 141 seats and BJP on 102.

However, the BJP, in any case, would not want the JDU to fight on more number of seats that itself. This would not only send a message of the JDU being a big brother in the alliance but might also give the JDU an opportunity to dump the BJP post-poll if it wins more than 100 seats in a house of 243. The half way mark in Bihar Assembly is 122.

Interestingly, results of the assembly elections in neighboring Jharkhand may also have a bearing on the BJP-JDU alliance in Bihar. The BJP is fighting the Jharkhand election alone, snapping ties with All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU). If it wins Jharkhand election, it will not only strengthen its position in NDA but will also shield from pressure politics of the alliance partners.

BJP’s ally problem in poll-bound Jharkhand.

Source – indiatoday.in

For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which lost an opportunity to form a government in Maharashtra because of the difficult attitude of ally Shiv Sena, it may not be an end of story in terms of problems from partners as it was facing a similar situation in poll-bound Jharkhand too.

In Jharkhand, where elections to its 81-member Assembly will be held in five phases from November 30, the BJP will have to fight against one of its oldest alliance partners, the Janata Dal-United (JD-U), which has decided to contest separately on all the seats in the state.

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar had made the party’s stand clear during the national council meeting last week in New Delhi, where he was re-elected as the JD-U chief for a second consecutive time.

A senior JD-U leader said the party will contest independently in the five-phased Jharkhand Assembly polls and not in alliance with the BJP.

The JD-U has a history of snubbing the BJP.

In 2013, after the then Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi was projected as the BJP’s Prime Ministerial face, the JD-U opposed the move and walked out of the alliance.

After the debacle in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the JD-U stitched a Grand Alliance with Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress in the state for the 2015 Assembly polls.

The Grand Alliance comprising the three parties cornered the BJP in the Assembly polls in the state. However in June 2017, the JD-U walked out of the alliance and again joined the NDA to form a government in the state.

The BJP and the JD-U contested on equal number of seats in the state during the Lok Sabha polls. However, the Nitish Kumar-led party did not join the Cabinet over differences on the respectable representation in the government.

Following the snubbing at the Centre, Nitish Kumar also did not gave more prominence to the BJP in the state in his cabinet expansion.

The JD-U also did not back the Modi government’s ambitious Triple Talaq Bill in Parliament.

On the other hand, the BJP is also facing an uphill task of gaining the trust of other allies in the state.

The BJP had the Hemant Soren-led Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) as an alliance partner in the state till 2012. But the JMM also ditched the BJP and joined hands with the Congress in the state.

The Grand Alliance consisting of the JMM-Congress and the RJD have already announced their alliance in the state with Soren as its Chief Ministerial candidate.

The JMM will be contesting on 43 seats while the Congress 31, leaving the rest of the seven seats to the RJD.

The 81-member Jharkhand Assembly is set to go for a five-phased election from November 30 to December 20. The counting of votes will take place on December 23.