Tag: Modi-Shah

Spirited fightbacks and BJP’s vulnerabilities in states.

Source – tribuneindia.com

The BJP is engaged in a two-pronged ideological project that seeks to assert Hindu hegemony as much as it works to make one leader the unquestioned authority over much of India. At the national level, the BJP, led by Narendra Modi, prevailed quite magnificently in the General Election earlier this year. But as we are yet to have that much-promoted ‘one nation, one poll’, the states continue to throw up challenges for the BJP. 

First, there is the problem of plenty and the consequence of initiating growth at the expense of traditional allies. That is what really lies at the heart of the Shiv Sena breaking free of the BJP and attempting another arrangement with the NCP and Congress. The current Modi-Shah-led BJP has a very different approach to coalitions and allies than the Vajpayee-led arrangement that ruled from 1998 to 2004. In its current avatar, the BJP diminishes the regional parties and takes over their space. Once the senior partner in the Maharashtra arrangement, the Sena has had to live with diminishing clout and the fear of losing its USP. A consequence of the Sena departure from the NDA is that a section of the BJP now believes it should have fought on every seat in Maharashtra and given no space to the regional party to play its games. Soon after the Maharashtra verdict, the BJP played hardball with its ally in Jharkhand, the All-Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU) and refused to agree to its seat demands for state elections that will take place in five phases starting on November 30. The AJSU is now contesting on its own. 

The question now is whether this psychological approach will extend to Bihar, where the BJP is in government with Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and where elections take place exactly a year from now.First, let us recall that the current state government is technically forged against the mandate that was given to the grand alliance of Nitish and Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD in 2015. It was that pairing that had given rise to the idea of a mahagathbandhan that has currently been discredited. Although Home Minister Amit Shah has stated that the Bihar elections will be fought under the leadership of Nitish Kumar, the BJP has actually been covertly working in the state with certain elements of the RJD to clip Nitish’s wings. There is a push-pull happening in Bihar and given what’s happened in Maharashtra, the BJP would want to safeguard its investment and back a weakened Nitish who could subsequently be dumped. In another strange twist in the world of NDA allies, the JD(U) has announced it will be fighting every seat in Jharkhand on its own even as the party continues to refuse to join the Modi government at the Centre.       

Secondly, the BJP would also need to rework its recent approach to “social engineering”, a term put into usage by one-time RSS ideologue KN Govindacharya, who had worked as organisation secretary of the BJP at a critical time in the party’s growth. After the 2014 win of Narendra Modi, the BJP went against conventional caste and community parameters in choosing leadership for the states. 

In the two states that have most recently voted, Haryana and Maharashtra, and where the BJP’s performance was underwhelming, the party had rather courageously gone against the dominant caste syndrome. This essentially means that they selected chief ministers that did not come from social groups that have traditionally wielded power in these states. It was all supposed to be going smoothly and had the BJP won, the party would have been credited with reinventing the wheel. 

But as it turned out, the dominant castes struck back in both states. In Haryana, the BJP’s social coalition was essentially an anti-Jat rainbow, but the party failed to win a majority. To form the government, it had to turn to a 31-year-old Jat leader, Dushyant Chautala, from a political dynasty and make him the Deputy Chief Minister of the state. In Haryana, the strong re-emergence of the Congress too was largely due to the Jat leadership of a former Chief Minister. 

Similarly, in Maharashtra, now under President’s rule, the old political warhorse, NCP leader Sharad Pawar, made much of his campaign about injured Maratha pride — the traditional ruling community of the state that had been restive through much of the reign of Brahmin Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. 

In Jharkhand, too, the BJP had gone against the convention of having an Adivasi Chief Minister in a state that was supposedly created for the tribals that make up 27 per cent of the population. The state formed on November 15, 2000, had had only Adivasi chief ministers till December 27, 2014, when Raghubar Das from a backward caste became Chief Minister. Still, the dominant caste syndrome would not apply here in the same manner as it did in Haryana and Maharashtra as Jats and Marathas have economic and muscle power, unlike the tribals. 

Given the BJP’s disappointing performance in the last round of Assembly polls, the party will be waiting to see if the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance that is projecting tribal leader Hemant Soren as the CM, would make a breakthrough. If it does, then the case for arithmetical alliances by the opposition will get strengthened again. Soren has described the BJP as a “sinking ship”, but is it so? Internal surveys convince the BJP that going it alone could be the best option (CSDS data for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls shows that the BJP got 64 per cent of the Hindu vote in Jharkhand).

Third, there is now the question of the BJP’s ability to absorb defectors from other parties, a situation that is playing out most visibly in Karnataka, where the BJP got a government after orchestrating absenteeism from 17 members of the preceding Congress-JD (S) coalition. The SC, in a controversial order, has now allowed these legislators to contest elections, but they had originally fought against BJP candidates, so that is creating local-level problems. Besides, the Karnataka defectors and the BJP would be worried by the results of polls in Maharashtra, Haryana and some byelections where party-hoppers were mostly defeated.

For all its apparent might, therefore, the BJP does have vulnerabilities in the states. On the one hand, the Modi persona and an enhanced Hindu identity appear to be the gifts that keep giving results. Yet, state contests show local divergences and sudden islands of spirited fightbacks that do not always go according to the script that is planned, promoted and executed with might and money. 

Why Jharkhand election is a headache for Modi-Shah.

Source – indiatoday.in

Jharkhand goes to the polls in five phases between November 30 and December 20 for 81 assembly seats. The BJP faces a stiff challenge to retain Jharkhand in order to wrest the trend of losing states in the past one year.

In November 2018, the BJP boasted of having chief ministers in 16 states. Now, the party is in power in 12. The loss of four states happened on both sides of the 2019 Lok Sabha election in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi pulled off a spectacular victory for the BJP.

The challenge looks particularly daunting in Jharkhand in view of the assembly election results in Maharashtra and Haryana, and subsequent trouble with allies. The less than expected performance and bitter experience with its allies in Maharashtra and Haryana is believed to be weighing heavily in the minds of BJP leadership headed by Modi-Shah.

In Jharkhand, the BJP has not yet sealed a seat-sharing arrangement with its existing ally — the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU). The LJP, its ally in Bihar, too wanted to join hands with it but has now decided to contest the election on its own.

On the other hand, the Opposition parties – the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), the Congress and the RJD – have inked a seat-sharing formula after returning from the verge of collapse. On paper, the Opposition alliance looks formidable in Jharkhand.

In the run-up to the Jharkhand assembly elections, the BJP has suffered setbacks with leaders, including chief whip Radhakrishna Kishore, switching sides to the AJSU and complicating matters. State elections have emerged as a new headache for the BJP.

STATE ELECTIONS ARE BJP’S NEW WORRY

In state elections, where PM Modi is not a direct factor, the BJP has struggled. Many believed that the triple loss in the Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh was a mere blip or the call of democracy-to change governments in elections. But the recent elections in Maharashtra and Haryana reinforce the critics’ assertion that the BJP is on a sticky ground in states where PM Modi’s personal appeal is not a moving factor.

The BJP barely scraped through in Haryana piggybacking on fledgling Jannayak Janata Party of Dushyant Chautala, who emerged as the kingmaker. The BJP’s claim of providing good governance for five years failed to find enough echo from the people and the party fell short of majority.

In Maharashtra, the BJP leadership of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah got foxed by rather underestimated politician Uddhav Thackeray, who is most-likely to be the next chief minister in the state.

The BJP contested Maharashtra election in alliance with the Shiv Sena, which changed track after election results left BJP short of majority, though the coalition got a clear mandate to form government. Now, the BJP is likely to sit in Opposition and its rivals, the Congress and the NCP, to share power with the Shiv Sena.

MAHARASHTRA-HARAYANA HANGOVER IN JHARKHAND

There is apprehension in the BJP camp that Jharkhand may follow the trend seen in Haryana or Maharashtra. The BJP leadership has been in dilemma whether it should go solo in the election or concede more seats (than it wants) to its ally/ies in Jharkhand.

In 2014, the BJP contested Jharkhand Assembly election in alliance with the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU). They got 43 of 81 assembly seats defeating the grand-alliance of the Congress, the RJD, the JDU and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM).

Now, the BJP-AJSU alliance is almost over. The BJP has been announcing its nominees without clarifying if it will continue its alliance with the AJSU, which is the oldest ally of the party in the state. The two parties have never contested separately since the formation of Jharkhand in 2000.

The AJSU and the LJP of Ram Vilas Paswan (the party is now led by his son Chirag Paswan), however had expressed willingness to contest Jharkhand election in alliance with the BJP. But the LJP last week announced it will go alone. The AJSU is also apparently forced to chart the same path. Both are constituents of the BJP-led NDA.

It seems the post-election politics of Maharashtra and Haryana is hovering over Jharkhand election, making it difficult for the BJP leadership of Modi-Shah to take a decision about pre-poll alliance.

In Haryana, it went alone and fell short of majority. In Maharashtra, it allied with the Shiv Sena but the Shiv Sena dumped it after election results were announced.

The BJP, therefore, finds itself in a catch-22 situation in Jharkhand. It is not sure about forming alliance but it is not looking confident either to win majority on its own. In 2014 assembly election too, it wasn’t able to cross the half-way mark on its own.

FOR MODI VERSUS FOR BJP?

There is more to worry for the BJP. In its 2014 state election victory, the BJP had polled fewer votes than it secured in the Lok Sabha, when Narendra Modi was seeking his first term as the prime minister. The BJP won 12 of 14 Lok Sabha seats in 2014 polling 40 per cent votes in the state.

In 2014 Jharkhand election, BJP’s vote share was only 31 per cent. With ally AJSU, the total vote share was less than 35 per cent – a dip of over 5 per cent in mere five months.

In 2019 Lok Sabha election, the Modi wave saw the BJP-led coalition garner over 55 per cent votes with the BJP winning 11 seats and the AJSU one. At stake was the second term for PM Modi against a belligerent “chowkidar chor hai” campaign by Rahul Gandhi of the Congress.

In both Haryana and Maharashtra elections, however, the BJP’s vote share dipped significantly compared to its performance in the Lok Sabha election. The BJP, even PM Modi himself, could not convince voters that a vote for state government would be a vote for PM Modi.

Going into the assembly polls in Jaharkhand, the party has set a target of winning 65 of the 81 seats but it fears a repeat of what happened in Maharashtra or Haryana.