Source – indiatoday.in
he breaking of pre-poll alliance between the BJP and the Shiv Sena after the declaration of the 2019 Maharashtra Assembly election results on October 24 has led to some serious mulling over the fate of the BJP and its alliance partners in others states. The concern looks more serious in Bihar where the BJP-JDU combine is in power at present than other states.
Bihar goes to polls in just about 10 months and the breaking up of 30-year-old BJP-Shiv Sena alliance has become the biggest talking point in the state with many speculating what will happen to the BJP-JDU alliance. Barring four years between 2013 and 2017, the JDU and the BJP are alliance partners for 22 years.
JDU president and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar had severed ties with the BJP after it became clear that then Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi would be elevated as the prime ministerial candidate of the NDA for 2014 Lok Sabha election.
Nitish Kumar’s JDU has always donned the cap of the big brother in Bihar since he came to power in 2005 with BJP choosing to remain second fiddle. Though the BJP and the JDU contested equal number of seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections (17-17), it should not be perceived that both parties were at par.
The BJP with 22 MPs in 2014 had to sacrifice five sitting seats to accommodate the JDU, which turned out to be the biggest gainer. It had just two MPs in 2014 and managed to win 16 of the 17 seats in Bihar in 2019.
However, only a few months back, the BJP and the JDU had engaged in massive war of words over who would lead the NDA in the next assembly polls in Bihar. BJP’s Dalit face Sanjay Paswan suggested Nitish Kumar should make way for a BJP chief minister in 2020 and graduate to national politics.
The remarks by Sanjay Paswan left the JDU fuming and the normalcy returned only after Union Home Minister and BJP president Amit Shah said the BJP-JDU alliance in Bihar is “atal” (immovable) and that the Bihar Assembly election will be contested under the leadership of Nitish Kumar.
Amit Shah’s effort to put an end to all sorts of speculation over Nitish Kumar’s role in the NDA for 2020 Bihar Assembly election was seen as the BJP’s inability to gain foothold in the state where it faced a massive defeat in 2015 state polls following split with the JDU.
Though in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP made a clean sweep winning all the 17 seats it contested, the party still believes assembly election is a totally different ball game. The party does not want to risk going alone in the election and prefers to bank of the image of “Sushasan Babu” Nitish Kumar. The combination has worked well for the alliance in 2005 and 2010 when it registered emphatic victories.
However, following the Maharashtra episode, the BJP in Bihar has started targeting the JDU signaling that any move mirroring the Shiv Sena could spell disaster for the regional party.
Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Kumar Modi congratulated Devendra Fadnavis after his Saturday swearing in with a twisted tweet taking a veiled aim at Nitish Kumar too. He said, “Sharad Pawar like Nitish Kumar knew that BJP is more reliable than Congress. Shiv Sena was like RJD. Very difficult to work with party like Shiv Sena or RJD, full of lumpens.”
Sources say, Sushil Modi, considered close to Nitish Kumar, through this tweet obliquely hinted at Bihar chief minister advising him to keep distance from the Congress, which has never appeared averse to Nitish Kumar for his secular credentials. Sushil Kumar Modi also warned Nitish Kumar against allying again with the RJD the way he did in 2015.
Speculation is rife that BJP firebrand leader and Union minister Giriraj Singh’s comments after Fadnavis took oath as Maharshtra chief minister was also aimed at Nitish Kumar. Singh said, “Greed and arrogance invite disaster.”
Lok Janshakti Party leader and Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan’s statement is too being seen as a veiled message to the JDU national president. “Animal which is indecisive whether to go left or right gets killed on the road,” Paswan wrote on Twitter.
The JDU too obliquely criticized BJP for allying with NCP (Ajit Pawar) and relinquishing its ideology for power.
In such circumstances, the bone of contention could be the seat-sharing agreement between the BJP and the JDU. Both parties would be keen to grab a larger piece of the cake. Remember, some seats also have to be given to the LJP, another alliance partner of the NDA in Bihar.
The BJP would be keen to settle for the seat-sharing formula based on the Lok Sabha elections where both parties fought equal number of seats. However, the JDU would want to keep the 2010 formula as the reference point when both parties fought elections together. The JDU contested on 141 seats and BJP on 102.
However, the BJP, in any case, would not want the JDU to fight on more number of seats that itself. This would not only send a message of the JDU being a big brother in the alliance but might also give the JDU an opportunity to dump the BJP post-poll if it wins more than 100 seats in a house of 243. The half way mark in Bihar Assembly is 122.
Interestingly, results of the assembly elections in neighboring Jharkhand may also have a bearing on the BJP-JDU alliance in Bihar. The BJP is fighting the Jharkhand election alone, snapping ties with All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU). If it wins Jharkhand election, it will not only strengthen its position in NDA but will also shield from pressure politics of the alliance partners.