Tag: Jharkhand-polls-2019

Jharkhand Assembly polls: Campaigning for final phase ends.

Source – newsonair.com

Campaigning for the fifth and final phase of Assembly elections in Jharkhand ended today.

Sixteen constituencies spread over Sahebganj, Pakur, Dumka, Jamtara, Deoghar and Godda districts of Santhal Pargana region will go to polls in this phase on Friday.

In five assembly segments of Borio, Barhait, Litipara, Maheshpur and Sikaripara campaigning ended at 3 PM due to security reasons. In the remaining 11 seats, campaigning concluded at 5 PM.

AIR Correspondent reports that star campaigners of political parties, including BJP, Congress, JMM, Jharkhand Vikas Morcha and AJSU, made the last-ditch efforts to woo voters.

Addressing an election meeting at Sarath in Deoghar, Executive President of BJP JP Nadda said if the party is voted to power a committee would be constituted to give additional reservation quota to OBCs, without affecting the existing reservation given to SC/STs.

Senior BJP leader and Union Minister Arjun Munda said the speed of development will be further stepped up if the BJP is voted to power again in Jharkhand.

Sharing dias with JMM and RJD leader in Pakur, Congress General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadera alleged that BJP leaders are making false promises before people of Jharkhand. Accusing Raghubar Das government, she said, tribals were deprived from their land right.

BJP leaders Babul Supriyo in Jamtara and Ravi Kishan in Godda held roadshows. JMM President Shibu Soren said, interests of tribal communities were ignored during the BJP rule. Jharkhand Vikas Morcha President Babulal Marandi assured people that his government will establish industries in Jharkhand.

AJSU President Sudesh Kumar Mahto said, his government will fill up vacant government posts immediately and allowance will be given to unemployed youth.

Leaders of RJD and the Left parties also addressed election rallies in support of their party candidates.

Jharkhand poll: Voting for 12 seats ends, 57.96 per cent votes cast.

Source – newindianexpress.com

RANCHI: Voting ended for 12 of the 17 assembly seats at 3 p.m. in the third phase of the polls with 57.96 per cent votes being cast on Thursday.

The voting will end at 5 p.m. for the Ranchi, Hatia, Kanke, Ramgarh and Barkatha assembly seats.

Jharkahnd Governor Draupdi Murmu cast her vote at ATI Ranchi while AJSU president Sudesh Mahtyo cast his vote along with his wife at Silli. Jayant Sinha cast his vote in Hazaribagh.

In the third phase the key candidates are three ministers — CP Singh, Ramchandra Sahis and Neera Yadav, Former Chief Minister Babulal Marandi and former Deputy Chief Minister and All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) president Sudesh Mahto.

Of the 17 seats, BJP, JMM and Congress had won 10, three and two seats respectively in the 2014 Assembly elections.

There is a direct fight on between the BJP, Congress and JMM candidates on seven seats. For the Silli seat the fight is between AJSU president Sudesh Mahto and JMM sitting legislator Seema Devi. There is a triangular fight on six seats. For some seats the fight is four-cornered or multi-cornered.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Jharkahnd Chief Minister Raghubar Das have appealed to the voters to cast their votes.

Jharkhand polls: PM Modi urges people to vote in large numbers.

Source – indiatoday.in

As polling for the third phase of the Jharkhand Assembly elections kick-started today morning, Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged people to vote in large numbers.

“The third phase of Jharkhand polls will take place today. Urging all those whose seats go to the polls today to vote in large numbers. I particularly urge my young friends to vote,” the Prime Minister tweeted.

The third of the five-phase elections of Jharkhand Assembly elections began on Thursday and will decide the fate of legislators in 17 seats out of the 81 assembly constituencies.

A total of 309 candidates, including 32 women, are contesting from 17 assembly seats. The constituencies, including two reserved for SC candidates and one ST candidate, going to vote on Thursday are spread over eight districts in the state.

The first phase of the election in the state took place on November 30 while the second round was held on December 7.

The fourth phase will be conducted on December 16, and the fifth and last phase on December 20.

The counting of votes will take place on December 23.

Maoist-hit areas vote today in round three of Jharkhand polls.

Source – hindustantimes.com

Voting is underway to pick legislators from 17 seats of the 81 assembly constituencies of Jharkhand on Thursday in the third round of the five-phase election, amid heavy security.

The Election Commission has made heavy deployment of security forces, as 12 constituencies out of total 17 are stated to be under the influence of left-wing extremism (LWE).

Chief electoral officer Vinay Kumar Choubey said, “Like previous phases, there are some LWE-affected pockets in the third phase as well. In view of this, we have heli dropped polling personnel in 96 polling stations. Besides, 10 polling booths have been relocated due to security reasons.”

A total of three helicopters have been deployed to ferry the polling officials in sensitive areas, he added.

Out of 7,016 polling stations across 17 constituencies in eight districts, a total of 1,008 booths have been declared hyper-LWE sensitive, while 543 polling stations are LWE sensitive. Altogether 1,119 booths have been declared non-LWE hyper sensitive, while 2,672 are non-LWE sensitive booths, election officials said.

A crucial phase for the ruling BJP and the Opposition alliance, a group of three parties comprising Congress, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), it will also decide the fate of two Cabinet ministers (CP Singh and Neera Yadav), former minister Rajendra Singh, Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) chief Babulal Marandi and All Jharkhand Students Union or AJSU Party supremo Sudesh Mahto.

A total of 309 candidates, including 32 women, are contesting from 17 assembly seats. Besides, two Cabinet ministers, seven other sitting legislators — JP Yadav, Manish Jaiswal, Rajkumar Yadav, Yogeshwar Mahto, Sadhucharan Mahto, Ramkumar Pahan and Naveen Jaiswal — are also fighting to retain their seats.

Riding on the magic of prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP, which contesting from 16 seats, is confident of bagging the maximum number of seats in this phase. BJP had grabbed nine seats in the 2014 assembly elections. The alliance, which has fielded candidates in all 17 seats, is also hoping big gains from the phase.

In past assembly elections, Congress and JMM won two seats each, while Babulal Marandi led JVM-P bagged two seats. AJSU Party and CPI-M shared one seat each.

According to a report by the Association for Democratic Reform (ADR), which has analysed the affidavits of all 309 candidates in the fray, a total of 91 candidates with criminal charges are contesting the polls in the third phase and 62 of them have serious criminal cases against them.

ASJU Party has fielded the maximum number of candidates with criminal charges (10), while BJP has put up eight and the alliance six. JVM-P’s eight candidates out of the total 17 in the fray for the third phase have declared criminal cases against them.

Buoyed by the encouraging voters turnout in the first phase (64.22%) and second phase (65.15%), the poll panel expects the turnout to be higher in the third phase. To attract the maximum number of voters, the Election Commission has declared 329 polling stations as model booths, of which 44 would be operated by women.

Stage Set for Third Phase of Polling in Jharkhand: Can BJP Continue its Success Story This Time?

Source – news18.com

New Delhi: The 17 constituencies that go to polls on Thursday in the third phase of the Jharkhand Assembly elections have returned the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as the single-largest party in two of the three state elections held in the state since its formation in 2000. The latest phase is also the second-largest in terms of seats contested after phase two.

Of the 17 seats — Barhi, Barkagaon, Barkatha, Bermo, Dhanwar, Gomia, Hatia, Hazaribagh, Ichagarh, Kanke, Khijri, Kodarma, Mandu, Ramgarh, Ranchi, Silli, and Simaria — the BJP has never lost in the two constituencies of Ranchi and Kanke. The saffron party has won three other seats twice during the state elections held in Jharkhand in 2005, 2009, and 2014.

The BJP had secured nine of these 17 seats in 2005 with a contested vote-share of 25% across the 15 seats from where it fielded its candidates.

These constituencies, including two reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) candidates and one Scheduled Tribes (ST) candidate, are spread over eight districts.

The fate of 309 candidates, including 32 women nominees, will be decided in the 17 constituencies with 56,18,267 electorate (eligible to exercise their franchise), the Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) told a press conference here. The electorate includes 26,80,205 women and 86 third-gender voters.

As many as 62 (20%) candidates have declared serious criminal cases against themselves, according to an analysis by the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR).

At least 10 of these candidates have declared cases related to ‘crime against women’, two have cases related to ‘murder’, and 13 others have cases related to ‘attempt to murder’. Another 77 (25%) are crorepatis, with the average assets per member at Rs 1.24 crore.

The party suffered a setback in 2009 when it was reduced to just four seats, despite retaining its vote-share. It made a comeback in 2014 riding on the Narendra Modi wave. In 2014, it returned seven MLAs and increased its vote-share (contested) to almost 40%.

The opposition to the BJP in these seats has been scattered. For instance, the Congress emerged as the most successful party in six of the 13 seats where it fielded candidates in 2009 and managed to garner 26% of the votes.

Besides, the grand old party had won three seats in 2005 and just two in 2014 when it was reduced to just 14.7% of the vote-share (in 13 contested seats).

The Congress party’s alliance partner in the current elections, Jharkhand Mukti Mocha (JMM), has also fared poorly. The party secured just a single seat each in 2005 and 2009 before increasing its tally to three in 2014.

Former chief minister Babulal Marandi’s Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik), which contested for the first time in 2009, has won three seats each during the last two assembly elections.

The BJP’s former ally, the All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU) party, had also won two seats each in 2005 and 2009. In 2014, it could win only Ramgarh, a seat it has retained in the last three elections.

Among the candidates, Marandi, Urban Development Minister CP Singh and Education Minister Neera Yadav are in the fray. While Marandi is contesting from the Dhanwar seat, Singh and Yadav are contesting from Ranchi and Kodarma constituencies, respectively.

Former deputy chief minister and AJSU party president Sudesh Mahto is trying his luck to regain Silli seat after he lost the 2014 Assembly polls and the subsequent bypoll to JMM candidates Amit Mahato and his wife Seema Mahato respectively.

The BJP has not fielded candidates from Silli though the NDA allies are fighting the polls separately, for the first time since the states creation.

Meanwhile, about 40,000 polling personnel have been deputed to conduct smooth and peaceful voting in the third of the five-phase polling, Jharkhand Chief Election Officer Vinay Kumar Choubey said on Wednesday.

Stating that there are LWE (left wing extremist) pockets in this phase, Choubey said that personnel of 96 polling stations have been dropped by helicopters and 10 polling stations have been re-located on security grounds.

“Personnel of 188 polling stations were sent two days ago and have reached there and almost all the officials to other booths have reached,” Choubey said.

The polling personnel of 626 polling stations will return to their respective district headquarters on Friday and arrangements of CCTV and double-lock strong rooms have been made, the CEO said.

He added if any political parties desired to send their agents to stay there could do so.

The CEO said that there are 13,504 ballot units, 8,772 controlling units and 9,123 VVPAT in the 17 seats with double ballot units being set up in nine of the constituencies as there are 16 or more candidates in the fray.

A total of 2,014 polling stations have webcasting facilities, 329 model polling stations and 44 polling stations will be conducted by women polling personnel, he said. Of the total 7,016 polling stations set up for the third-phase, 1,008 are marked as ‘critical’ and 543 ‘sensitive’ in Naxal-affected areas.

While 1,119 polling stations are ‘critical’ and 2,672 polling stations are ‘sensitive’ in the non-Naxal affected areas, he added. The voting will commence at 7am and end at 5pm at Ranchi, Hatia, Kanke, Barkatha and Ramgarh seats, while voters in the rest of the constituencies can exercise franchise between 7am and 3pm.

The first-phase polling for 13 seats and the second-phase for 20 Assembly segments had concluded on November 30 and December 7, respectively. The fourth and the fifth phases polling for 15 and 16 seats will be held on December 16 and 20, respectively. Counting to the 81-member House is slated on December 23.

Jharkhand Assembly polls: Campaigning for Phase-III ends, voting on Dec 12.

Source – business-standard.com

Campaigning in 17 Jharkhand assembly constituencies ended on Tuesday as the third of the five-phase polling in the seats will be held on December 12.

According to the Election Commissions latest updated list of voters about 56.18 lakh electorate, including female and third gender voters, are eligible to decide the fate of 309 candidates, including 32 women nominees in the 17 constituencies.

In all, 7016 polling stations have been set up to conduct smooth polling, an EC release said.

The voting will commence at 7 am and end at 5 pm on Thursday at Ranchi, Hatia, Kanke, Barkatha and Ramgarh seats while voters in the rest of the constituencies can exercise their franchise between 7 am and 3 pm, Election Commission officials said.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaigned in favour of BJP. Besides him, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, BJP Working President J P Nadda and Union minister Smriti Irani sought vote for nominees of the saffron party at different places.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and actor-politician Shatrughan Sinha addressed election meetings in support of party candidates in separate areas.

According to police sources, adequate security personnel, including central para-military and the state police forces have been deployed for a smooth and peaceful conduct of the voting.

Notable candidates in the electoral arena are Jharkhand Education Minister and BJP candidate Neera Yadav (Koderma), Urban Development Minister and BJP nominee C P Singh (Ranchi) and sitting MLAs of different parties.

Former chief minister and president of Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) Babulal Marandi is contesting Dhanwar seat.

Former deputy chief minister and AJSU party president Sudesh Mahto is crossing swords with sitting JMM MLA Seema Mahato from Silli assembly seat.

Former minister and Congress candidate Rajendra Prasad Singh is taking on sitting BJP MLA Yogeshwar Mahato from Bermo.

“Booth app” has been launched in 10 of the 81 assembly constituencies in Jharkhand as a pilot project and in the third-phase Hazaribag, Ranchi and Ramgarh constituencies will have the booth-app facility to give real-time voting percentage and other information, the release said.

The 17 constituencies, including two reserved for SC candidates and one ST nominees, are spread over eight districts.

The seats where polling will be held are Kodarma, Barkatha, Barhi, Barkagaon, Ramgarh, Mandu, Hazaribag, Simaria (SC), Dhanwar, Gomia, Bermo, Ichagarh, Silli, Khijri (ST), Ranchi, Hatia and Kanke (SC), an EC release said.

The BJP has nominated candidates in 16 of the 17 seats in this phase, a party leader said.

The Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) has fielded candidates in all the seats in the third-phase, JVM (P) spokesman Saroj Singh said.

The opposition alliance comprising the JMM, Congress and the RJD have fielded candidates in the constituencies as per their pre-poll seat adjustments.

The AJSU party, Lok Jan Shakti Party, Aam Admi Party, Samajwadi Party, CPI, CPI (ML-Liberation), All India Trinamool Congress, Hindustani Awami Morcha (Secular), Shiv Sena, Janata Dal (United), All India Forward Bloc and some other parties have put up candidates in selective constituencies.

The first-phase polling for 13 seats and the second-phase for 20 assembly segments had concluded on November 30 and December 7 respectively.

The fourth and the fifth phases polling for 15 and 16 seats will be held on December 16 and 20 respectively.

Counting to the 81-member House is slated on December 23.

Jharkhand Assembly Election 2019: CM Raghubar Das, Speaker Dinesh Oraon among big names in second phase.

Source – hindustantimes.com

Chief minister Raghubar Das, state assembly Speaker Dinesh Oraon, former state food supply minister Saryu Roy and the BJP’s state unit president Laxman Gilua are among the key contestants in the second phase of assembly election in Jharkhand on Saturday.

Raghubar Das is locked in a bitter battle with his former cabinet colleague and now Independent candidate Saryu Roy in his home constituency of Jamshedpur-East.

The BJP’s state unit president Laxman Gilua is fighting it out against the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha’s (JMM’s) Sukhram Oraon in Chakradharpur seat. Sukhram Oraon is the former member of legislative assembly (MLA) from the seat.

Everyone’s eyes are also on Chakradharpur because of the contest between sitting MLA Shashi Bhusan Samad as the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) candidate and All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) Party nominee Ram Lal Munda.

The chief minister has promised to make it a district if voted to power.

In Sisai seat, state assembly speaker and the Bharatiya Janata Party’s candidate Dinesh Oraon is caught in a direct fight with JMM candidate Jigga Susaran Horo. Dinesh Oraon had won the seat in 2014.

The state’s rural development and parliamentary Neelkanth Singh Munda is facing an uphill task in his home constituency Khunti with JMM’s Sushil Pahan as his rival in the Jharkhand Assembly Election 2019.

JVM-P candidate and social activist Dayamani Barla has made it a triangular fight in Khunti, where controversial Patthalgadi movement ruled the roost for over a year and is plagued by tribal anger and unrest for long.

Tamar is another seat of interest in the Jharkhand Assembly Election 2019 where the JMM’s Vikas Munda, son of former minister Ramesh Singh Munda, is taking on the BJP’s Rita Devi.

Surrendered Maoist commander Kundan Pahan and former minister Raja Peter, both in jail for Ramesh Singh Munda’s murder, are also contesting from the seat. Peter had earlier defeated former chief minister Sibu Soren.

The BJP and JMM are in a direct fight in the three districts of Kolhan where 13 assembly seats are polling.

The BJP had five seats in East Singhbhum and erstwhile ally AJSU Party had one seat in East Singhbhum. The JMM, on the other hand, had all the five seats in West Singhbhum and both the seats in Seraikela-Kharsawan district in 2014.

More than 48,25,000 voters will choose their representatives among the 260 candidates in the second phase of the Jharkhand Assembly Elections 2019.

The first phase was held on November 30. The fifth and final phase of polling will take place on December 20 and votes will be counted on December 23.

Jharkhand elections: Phase 2 witnesses 63.36% turnout; one killed in firing.

Source – business-standard.com

An estimated 63.36 per cent votes were cast on Saturday in the second phase of election for the Assembly in Jharkhand where one person killed was in firing by security personnel near a polling booth.

The voting figure is likely to go up as reports from remote places are awaited.

Polling in the 20 constituencies had begun at 7 am amid tight security. It ended at 3 pm in 18 of them while in the rest two – Jamshedpur (East) and Jamshedpur (West) – the polling ended at 5 pm, Election Commission sources said.

Chief Minister Raghubar Das was in the fray in Jamshedpur (East).

Jharkhand Additional Director General of Police Murari Lal Meena said the man was killed when personnel of the Rapid Action Force (RAF) fired on the assailants near booth number 36 in Sisai constituency for trying to snatch their arms.

Two persons who were injured in the incident were admitted to hospital, said Meena, who is also the nodal officer for assembly election-related security measures.

Jharkhand Chief Electoral Officer Vinay Kumar Choubey said the incident is being probed and polling in the booth had been suspended.

A police officer also suffered injuries when angry villagers resorted to stone pelting after the incident, police sources said.

In West Singhbhum district, Naxals torched an empty bus near Jojo Hatu village in Chaibasa constituency, superintendent of police Inderjeet Mahata said.

Assembly Speaker Dinesh Oraon (Sisai), Rural Development Minister Neelkanth Singh Munda (Khunti) and BJP’s state unit president Laxman Gilua (Chakradharpur), whose fates were decided in this phase of polling, were among the early voters in their respective constituencies.

A large number of people were seen waiting in long queues braving cold conditions to cast their votes in Baharagora and Chaibasa constituencies, the officials said.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted urging voters to come out in large numbers to exercise their franchise.

A total 48,25,038 voters, including 23,93,437 female and 90 third gender voters, were eligible to exercise their franchise to decide the fate of 260 candidates, including 29 women nominees and 73 independents.

According to the police, more than 42,000 security personnel, including central forces, have been deployed in the 20 constituencies spread across seven districts.

Several constituencies where polling was held in this phase of polling were Naxal-affected and armed police have been deployed as a part of the security measure, Choubey said.

Out of a total of 6,066 polling stations, 949 have been declared as critical and 762 as sensitive in Naxal- affected areas, he said.

The CEO said that 101 polling stations have been relocated due to security reasons and free transport facility has been arranged for voters to reach these stations.

Webcasting facilities has been made available at 1,662 polling stations, he said.

The assembly segments which went to the polls in the second phase were Baharagora, Ghatsila, Potka, Jugsalai, Jamshedpur (East), Jamshedpur (West), Seraikela, Chaibasa, Majhgaon, Jaganathpur, Manoharpur, Chakradharpur, Kharsawan, Tamar, Torpa, Khunti, Mandar, Sisai, Simdega and Kolebira.

Sixteen of the 20 constituencies are reserved for Scheduled Tribe (ST) candidates and one for Scheduled Caste (SC).

BJP contested in all the 20 constituencies in the second phase, while the opposition alliance of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and Congress contested in 14 and six seats, respectively.

The RJD, which got a total of seven seats as per the seat-sharing formula of the opposition combine, had no candidate in this round.

NDA ally AJSU party, which contested the assembly elections on its own for the first time since the creation of the state, has fielded candidates from 12 constituencies in this phase.

The Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) nominated leaders in all the 20 seats and the Bahujan Samaj Party in 14.

The CPI contested in two seats, the CPI(M) in one and the NCP in two.

Six candidates of the All India Trinamool Congress were also in the fray in the second round.

The rest of the three phases will be held on December 12, 16 and 20.

Counting will take place on December 23.

Jharkhand Assembly Election 2019: First phase of polling today, IAF chopper drops polling personnel in Chhattisgarh.

Source – hindustantimes.com

An Indian Air Force (IAF) chopper “mistakenly” dropped a team of polling personnel from Jharkhand on duty for the first phase of assembly elections on November 30 in the neighbouring state Chhattisgarh on Thursday.

Members of eight polling parties had taken off from a helipad at the district headquarters in Latehar for Chatakapur in Mahuadand in Jharkhand’s Latehar district but they found themselves dropped at Sattipara field in Pratappur Bhainsamunda area of Surajpur district in Chhattisgarh.

The Latehar district administration had despatched 18 members of nine polling parties for Chatakpur cluster centre in Manika assembly constituency, which is among the 13 assembly constituencies in Latehar, Palamu, Garhwa, Chatra, Lohardaga and Gumla districts where voting is scheduled to take place on November 30.

The polling personnel included nine presiding officers and nine first polling officers for nine polling stations in the area. Manika constituency had a total of 321 polling stations.

Upon realising about the wrong landing, the polling personnel informed the Latehar deputy commissioner (DC) and district election officer (DEO) Zeeshan Qmar, who alerted his Chhattisgarh counterpart Dipak Soni.

Soon, a team of officials from Chhattisgarh reached the site of landing and provided security cover to the 18-member polling party. Later, another IAF helicopter was sent from Latehar in Jharkhand to lift the stranded polling personnel from Chhattisgarh and drop them at their original destination in Jharkhand.

The Latehar DC later said, “The chopper lost its way and dropped the polling personnel in adjoining Chhattisgarh. The pilot had picked the details of a wrong location. They are all safe and have been brought back to Chatakpur.”

Raees Ahmad, one of the polling personnel, said, “The pilot of the IAF chopper asked us to alight in a field saying the engine had developed some technical snag. We obeyed and got down. Before we could understand something, the chopper left us and flew back.”

“On realising where we are, we panicked at first but soon villagers reached there and assured us of safety,” said Krishna Ram, another member of polling party.

The district administration had despatched a total of 125 polling parties to cluster centres by three IAF choppers two days ahead of the election.

A total of 83 parties were air dropped in Mahuadand block, 28 in Garu and another 14 in Barwadih block of the Manika assembly constituency.

Jharkhand Assembly Election: Will BJP’s solo act bear fruit?

Source – moneycontrol.com

After the closure to a rather dramatic post-election government formation in Maharashtra, where the BJP was outwitted by an astute Sharad Pawar, eyes have now turned to Jharkhand, where the saffron party is going solo.

According to a report by The Hindu, even as parleys were going on, BJP’s central leadership insisted that the party was likely to benefit from multi-cornered contests and announced candidates for 79 of the total 81 seats.

BJP’s decision to go alone also meant parting ways with ally All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), which has fielded 45 candidates this time.

In 2014, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) had contested as an alliance, while the Congress and the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) had fought independently.

This time, the Congress, RJD and the JMM have formed a pre-poll alliance and can prove to be a formidable challenge to the BJP, provided the three parties iron out their seat-sharing issues.

Besides, an analysis of the 2014 state elections shows that BJP’s reliance on a multi-cornered contest favouring them is likely to cause a dent.

In 2014, there were five seats where the victory margin was less than 1,000 votes. Of these, two went to the BJP, while the Congress, JMM and AJSU got one each. Plus, the Congress and the JMM were runners up in three seats, whereas the BJP was runner up only in one.

Again, there were 13 seats where the victory margin was between 1,000 and 5,000 votes. Of these, the BJP won five, while the JMM bagged two, and the JVM, AJSU and two others won one seat each. Here too, the BJP was runner up in four constituencies, while the JMM, Congress and RJD were runners up in six seats combined.

Seats, where the victory margin was more than 30,000 was where the BJP fared well. However, BJP leaders contend that vote transfer is not a given in Jharkhand. Incumbent Jharkhand Chief Minister Raghubar Das told the newspaper, “Just because there is an alliance among leaders does not mean that the support base will follow.”

Sharing the same sentiment, psephologist Abhay Kumar, formerly with the Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), said the 2014 results “cannot be extrapolated to 2019”.

Citing that it is the saffron party that has been able to provide Jharkhand with its only full-term government over the past five years, Kumar said, “The BJP’s stability in governance will be important.”

BJP, however is playing safe vis-à-vis its relationship with the AJSU. During poll rallies, party president Amit Shah refers to AJSU as an old ally, which is still a “friend”, something which JMM chief Hemant Soren believes is proof that the BJP’s solo act will backfire.

The role played by the JVM and Independents is still imponderable, as is the efficacy of the BJP’s strategy. These factors will provide a clearer picture on December 23, when the results to the Assembly elections are scheduled to be announced.