Tag: Jharkhand-election

Jharkhand election results to be announced today: All you need to know in 10 points.

Source – indiatoday.in

Votes for the Jharkhand Assembly election are being counted with the India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicting 22-32 seats for the ruling BJP, and 38-50 seats for the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-Congress alliance. As per the exit poll, JVM-P could win two to four seats while AJSU Party three to five and others four to seven. Jharkhand voted in five phases between November 30 and December 30 to elect a new government in the state.

Here’s all you need to know as results for the elections to the 81-member state assembly are announced.

1. The counting of votes for 81 Jharkhand Assembly seats began at 8 am. The counting of votes is taking place in all the 24 district headquarters. The maximum rounds of counting will take place at Chatra with 28 rounds and lowest round at two seats. Results will emerge by Monday afternoon.

2. Jharkhand is the third state to go to the polls since Prime Minister Narendra Modi returned to power at the Centre on the back of a landslide BJP victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

3. Jharkhand voted between November 30 and December 30. The overall voter turnout was recorded at 65.17 per cent. Voting passed off peacefully across Jharkhand’s 81 assembly constituencies. This was the first time in the state’s 19-year history that voting took place without any violence by Maoists.

4. The primary contest in the Jharkhand assembly election is between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the alliance between the Congress and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM).

5. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU) and Jharkhand Vikas Morcha-Prajatantrik (JVM-P) are among the major political parties which are in the fray in the tribal-dominated state.

6. Among key candidates in Jharkhand, Raghubar Das is contesting from the Jamshedpur East seat against his ex-cabinet colleague Saryu Rai and Congress candidate Gourav Vallabh. Former Chief Minister Hemant Soren is the fray from two seats. He is pitted against Social Welfare Minister Louis Marandi at Dumka.

7. Former Chief Minister and Jharkhand Vikas Morcha-Prajantarik (JVM-P) president Babulal Marandi is fighting from Dhanwar Assembly seat. The AJSU president, who lost the 2014 Assembly poll, is trying his luck again from Silli seat.

8. Most exit polls for the Jharkhand assembly election have predicted a hung assembly in the state with an advantage to the Congress-JMM alliance. The India Today-Axis My India exit poll had the BJP winning between 22 and 32 seats, and the JMM-Congress alliance between 38 and 50 seats.

9. A party or alliance needs to win at least 41 seats to form government in Jharkhand.

10. After the 2014 Jharkhand assembly election, the BJP formed government under CM Raghubar Das, who went on to become the only chief minister to complete a full five-year term in the state. The BJP ran the government in alliance with the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU). However, the two contested the 2019 Jharkhand assembly elections separately.

Jharkhand polls: PM Modi urges people to vote in large numbers.

Source – indiatoday.in

As polling for the third phase of the Jharkhand Assembly elections kick-started today morning, Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged people to vote in large numbers.

“The third phase of Jharkhand polls will take place today. Urging all those whose seats go to the polls today to vote in large numbers. I particularly urge my young friends to vote,” the Prime Minister tweeted.

The third of the five-phase elections of Jharkhand Assembly elections began on Thursday and will decide the fate of legislators in 17 seats out of the 81 assembly constituencies.

A total of 309 candidates, including 32 women, are contesting from 17 assembly seats. The constituencies, including two reserved for SC candidates and one ST candidate, going to vote on Thursday are spread over eight districts in the state.

The first phase of the election in the state took place on November 30 while the second round was held on December 7.

The fourth phase will be conducted on December 16, and the fifth and last phase on December 20.

The counting of votes will take place on December 23.

Stage Set for Third Phase of Polling in Jharkhand: Can BJP Continue its Success Story This Time?

Source – news18.com

New Delhi: The 17 constituencies that go to polls on Thursday in the third phase of the Jharkhand Assembly elections have returned the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as the single-largest party in two of the three state elections held in the state since its formation in 2000. The latest phase is also the second-largest in terms of seats contested after phase two.

Of the 17 seats — Barhi, Barkagaon, Barkatha, Bermo, Dhanwar, Gomia, Hatia, Hazaribagh, Ichagarh, Kanke, Khijri, Kodarma, Mandu, Ramgarh, Ranchi, Silli, and Simaria — the BJP has never lost in the two constituencies of Ranchi and Kanke. The saffron party has won three other seats twice during the state elections held in Jharkhand in 2005, 2009, and 2014.

The BJP had secured nine of these 17 seats in 2005 with a contested vote-share of 25% across the 15 seats from where it fielded its candidates.

These constituencies, including two reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) candidates and one Scheduled Tribes (ST) candidate, are spread over eight districts.

The fate of 309 candidates, including 32 women nominees, will be decided in the 17 constituencies with 56,18,267 electorate (eligible to exercise their franchise), the Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) told a press conference here. The electorate includes 26,80,205 women and 86 third-gender voters.

As many as 62 (20%) candidates have declared serious criminal cases against themselves, according to an analysis by the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR).

At least 10 of these candidates have declared cases related to ‘crime against women’, two have cases related to ‘murder’, and 13 others have cases related to ‘attempt to murder’. Another 77 (25%) are crorepatis, with the average assets per member at Rs 1.24 crore.

The party suffered a setback in 2009 when it was reduced to just four seats, despite retaining its vote-share. It made a comeback in 2014 riding on the Narendra Modi wave. In 2014, it returned seven MLAs and increased its vote-share (contested) to almost 40%.

The opposition to the BJP in these seats has been scattered. For instance, the Congress emerged as the most successful party in six of the 13 seats where it fielded candidates in 2009 and managed to garner 26% of the votes.

Besides, the grand old party had won three seats in 2005 and just two in 2014 when it was reduced to just 14.7% of the vote-share (in 13 contested seats).

The Congress party’s alliance partner in the current elections, Jharkhand Mukti Mocha (JMM), has also fared poorly. The party secured just a single seat each in 2005 and 2009 before increasing its tally to three in 2014.

Former chief minister Babulal Marandi’s Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik), which contested for the first time in 2009, has won three seats each during the last two assembly elections.

The BJP’s former ally, the All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU) party, had also won two seats each in 2005 and 2009. In 2014, it could win only Ramgarh, a seat it has retained in the last three elections.

Among the candidates, Marandi, Urban Development Minister CP Singh and Education Minister Neera Yadav are in the fray. While Marandi is contesting from the Dhanwar seat, Singh and Yadav are contesting from Ranchi and Kodarma constituencies, respectively.

Former deputy chief minister and AJSU party president Sudesh Mahto is trying his luck to regain Silli seat after he lost the 2014 Assembly polls and the subsequent bypoll to JMM candidates Amit Mahato and his wife Seema Mahato respectively.

The BJP has not fielded candidates from Silli though the NDA allies are fighting the polls separately, for the first time since the states creation.

Meanwhile, about 40,000 polling personnel have been deputed to conduct smooth and peaceful voting in the third of the five-phase polling, Jharkhand Chief Election Officer Vinay Kumar Choubey said on Wednesday.

Stating that there are LWE (left wing extremist) pockets in this phase, Choubey said that personnel of 96 polling stations have been dropped by helicopters and 10 polling stations have been re-located on security grounds.

“Personnel of 188 polling stations were sent two days ago and have reached there and almost all the officials to other booths have reached,” Choubey said.

The polling personnel of 626 polling stations will return to their respective district headquarters on Friday and arrangements of CCTV and double-lock strong rooms have been made, the CEO said.

He added if any political parties desired to send their agents to stay there could do so.

The CEO said that there are 13,504 ballot units, 8,772 controlling units and 9,123 VVPAT in the 17 seats with double ballot units being set up in nine of the constituencies as there are 16 or more candidates in the fray.

A total of 2,014 polling stations have webcasting facilities, 329 model polling stations and 44 polling stations will be conducted by women polling personnel, he said. Of the total 7,016 polling stations set up for the third-phase, 1,008 are marked as ‘critical’ and 543 ‘sensitive’ in Naxal-affected areas.

While 1,119 polling stations are ‘critical’ and 2,672 polling stations are ‘sensitive’ in the non-Naxal affected areas, he added. The voting will commence at 7am and end at 5pm at Ranchi, Hatia, Kanke, Barkatha and Ramgarh seats, while voters in the rest of the constituencies can exercise franchise between 7am and 3pm.

The first-phase polling for 13 seats and the second-phase for 20 Assembly segments had concluded on November 30 and December 7, respectively. The fourth and the fifth phases polling for 15 and 16 seats will be held on December 16 and 20, respectively. Counting to the 81-member House is slated on December 23.

Jharkhand Assembly polls: Campaigning for Phase-III ends, voting on Dec 12.

Source – business-standard.com

Campaigning in 17 Jharkhand assembly constituencies ended on Tuesday as the third of the five-phase polling in the seats will be held on December 12.

According to the Election Commissions latest updated list of voters about 56.18 lakh electorate, including female and third gender voters, are eligible to decide the fate of 309 candidates, including 32 women nominees in the 17 constituencies.

In all, 7016 polling stations have been set up to conduct smooth polling, an EC release said.

The voting will commence at 7 am and end at 5 pm on Thursday at Ranchi, Hatia, Kanke, Barkatha and Ramgarh seats while voters in the rest of the constituencies can exercise their franchise between 7 am and 3 pm, Election Commission officials said.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaigned in favour of BJP. Besides him, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, BJP Working President J P Nadda and Union minister Smriti Irani sought vote for nominees of the saffron party at different places.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and actor-politician Shatrughan Sinha addressed election meetings in support of party candidates in separate areas.

According to police sources, adequate security personnel, including central para-military and the state police forces have been deployed for a smooth and peaceful conduct of the voting.

Notable candidates in the electoral arena are Jharkhand Education Minister and BJP candidate Neera Yadav (Koderma), Urban Development Minister and BJP nominee C P Singh (Ranchi) and sitting MLAs of different parties.

Former chief minister and president of Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) Babulal Marandi is contesting Dhanwar seat.

Former deputy chief minister and AJSU party president Sudesh Mahto is crossing swords with sitting JMM MLA Seema Mahato from Silli assembly seat.

Former minister and Congress candidate Rajendra Prasad Singh is taking on sitting BJP MLA Yogeshwar Mahato from Bermo.

“Booth app” has been launched in 10 of the 81 assembly constituencies in Jharkhand as a pilot project and in the third-phase Hazaribag, Ranchi and Ramgarh constituencies will have the booth-app facility to give real-time voting percentage and other information, the release said.

The 17 constituencies, including two reserved for SC candidates and one ST nominees, are spread over eight districts.

The seats where polling will be held are Kodarma, Barkatha, Barhi, Barkagaon, Ramgarh, Mandu, Hazaribag, Simaria (SC), Dhanwar, Gomia, Bermo, Ichagarh, Silli, Khijri (ST), Ranchi, Hatia and Kanke (SC), an EC release said.

The BJP has nominated candidates in 16 of the 17 seats in this phase, a party leader said.

The Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) has fielded candidates in all the seats in the third-phase, JVM (P) spokesman Saroj Singh said.

The opposition alliance comprising the JMM, Congress and the RJD have fielded candidates in the constituencies as per their pre-poll seat adjustments.

The AJSU party, Lok Jan Shakti Party, Aam Admi Party, Samajwadi Party, CPI, CPI (ML-Liberation), All India Trinamool Congress, Hindustani Awami Morcha (Secular), Shiv Sena, Janata Dal (United), All India Forward Bloc and some other parties have put up candidates in selective constituencies.

The first-phase polling for 13 seats and the second-phase for 20 assembly segments had concluded on November 30 and December 7 respectively.

The fourth and the fifth phases polling for 15 and 16 seats will be held on December 16 and 20 respectively.

Counting to the 81-member House is slated on December 23.

Jharkhand elections: Phase 2 witnesses 63.36% turnout; one killed in firing.

Source – business-standard.com

An estimated 63.36 per cent votes were cast on Saturday in the second phase of election for the Assembly in Jharkhand where one person killed was in firing by security personnel near a polling booth.

The voting figure is likely to go up as reports from remote places are awaited.

Polling in the 20 constituencies had begun at 7 am amid tight security. It ended at 3 pm in 18 of them while in the rest two – Jamshedpur (East) and Jamshedpur (West) – the polling ended at 5 pm, Election Commission sources said.

Chief Minister Raghubar Das was in the fray in Jamshedpur (East).

Jharkhand Additional Director General of Police Murari Lal Meena said the man was killed when personnel of the Rapid Action Force (RAF) fired on the assailants near booth number 36 in Sisai constituency for trying to snatch their arms.

Two persons who were injured in the incident were admitted to hospital, said Meena, who is also the nodal officer for assembly election-related security measures.

Jharkhand Chief Electoral Officer Vinay Kumar Choubey said the incident is being probed and polling in the booth had been suspended.

A police officer also suffered injuries when angry villagers resorted to stone pelting after the incident, police sources said.

In West Singhbhum district, Naxals torched an empty bus near Jojo Hatu village in Chaibasa constituency, superintendent of police Inderjeet Mahata said.

Assembly Speaker Dinesh Oraon (Sisai), Rural Development Minister Neelkanth Singh Munda (Khunti) and BJP’s state unit president Laxman Gilua (Chakradharpur), whose fates were decided in this phase of polling, were among the early voters in their respective constituencies.

A large number of people were seen waiting in long queues braving cold conditions to cast their votes in Baharagora and Chaibasa constituencies, the officials said.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted urging voters to come out in large numbers to exercise their franchise.

A total 48,25,038 voters, including 23,93,437 female and 90 third gender voters, were eligible to exercise their franchise to decide the fate of 260 candidates, including 29 women nominees and 73 independents.

According to the police, more than 42,000 security personnel, including central forces, have been deployed in the 20 constituencies spread across seven districts.

Several constituencies where polling was held in this phase of polling were Naxal-affected and armed police have been deployed as a part of the security measure, Choubey said.

Out of a total of 6,066 polling stations, 949 have been declared as critical and 762 as sensitive in Naxal- affected areas, he said.

The CEO said that 101 polling stations have been relocated due to security reasons and free transport facility has been arranged for voters to reach these stations.

Webcasting facilities has been made available at 1,662 polling stations, he said.

The assembly segments which went to the polls in the second phase were Baharagora, Ghatsila, Potka, Jugsalai, Jamshedpur (East), Jamshedpur (West), Seraikela, Chaibasa, Majhgaon, Jaganathpur, Manoharpur, Chakradharpur, Kharsawan, Tamar, Torpa, Khunti, Mandar, Sisai, Simdega and Kolebira.

Sixteen of the 20 constituencies are reserved for Scheduled Tribe (ST) candidates and one for Scheduled Caste (SC).

BJP contested in all the 20 constituencies in the second phase, while the opposition alliance of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and Congress contested in 14 and six seats, respectively.

The RJD, which got a total of seven seats as per the seat-sharing formula of the opposition combine, had no candidate in this round.

NDA ally AJSU party, which contested the assembly elections on its own for the first time since the creation of the state, has fielded candidates from 12 constituencies in this phase.

The Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) nominated leaders in all the 20 seats and the Bahujan Samaj Party in 14.

The CPI contested in two seats, the CPI(M) in one and the NCP in two.

Six candidates of the All India Trinamool Congress were also in the fray in the second round.

The rest of the three phases will be held on December 12, 16 and 20.

Counting will take place on December 23.

Jharkhand Assembly Election 2019: First phase of polling today, IAF chopper drops polling personnel in Chhattisgarh.

Source – hindustantimes.com

An Indian Air Force (IAF) chopper “mistakenly” dropped a team of polling personnel from Jharkhand on duty for the first phase of assembly elections on November 30 in the neighbouring state Chhattisgarh on Thursday.

Members of eight polling parties had taken off from a helipad at the district headquarters in Latehar for Chatakapur in Mahuadand in Jharkhand’s Latehar district but they found themselves dropped at Sattipara field in Pratappur Bhainsamunda area of Surajpur district in Chhattisgarh.

The Latehar district administration had despatched 18 members of nine polling parties for Chatakpur cluster centre in Manika assembly constituency, which is among the 13 assembly constituencies in Latehar, Palamu, Garhwa, Chatra, Lohardaga and Gumla districts where voting is scheduled to take place on November 30.

The polling personnel included nine presiding officers and nine first polling officers for nine polling stations in the area. Manika constituency had a total of 321 polling stations.

Upon realising about the wrong landing, the polling personnel informed the Latehar deputy commissioner (DC) and district election officer (DEO) Zeeshan Qmar, who alerted his Chhattisgarh counterpart Dipak Soni.

Soon, a team of officials from Chhattisgarh reached the site of landing and provided security cover to the 18-member polling party. Later, another IAF helicopter was sent from Latehar in Jharkhand to lift the stranded polling personnel from Chhattisgarh and drop them at their original destination in Jharkhand.

The Latehar DC later said, “The chopper lost its way and dropped the polling personnel in adjoining Chhattisgarh. The pilot had picked the details of a wrong location. They are all safe and have been brought back to Chatakpur.”

Raees Ahmad, one of the polling personnel, said, “The pilot of the IAF chopper asked us to alight in a field saying the engine had developed some technical snag. We obeyed and got down. Before we could understand something, the chopper left us and flew back.”

“On realising where we are, we panicked at first but soon villagers reached there and assured us of safety,” said Krishna Ram, another member of polling party.

The district administration had despatched a total of 125 polling parties to cluster centres by three IAF choppers two days ahead of the election.

A total of 83 parties were air dropped in Mahuadand block, 28 in Garu and another 14 in Barwadih block of the Manika assembly constituency.

Jharkhand Assembly Election: Will BJP’s solo act bear fruit?

Source – moneycontrol.com

After the closure to a rather dramatic post-election government formation in Maharashtra, where the BJP was outwitted by an astute Sharad Pawar, eyes have now turned to Jharkhand, where the saffron party is going solo.

According to a report by The Hindu, even as parleys were going on, BJP’s central leadership insisted that the party was likely to benefit from multi-cornered contests and announced candidates for 79 of the total 81 seats.

BJP’s decision to go alone also meant parting ways with ally All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), which has fielded 45 candidates this time.

In 2014, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) had contested as an alliance, while the Congress and the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) had fought independently.

This time, the Congress, RJD and the JMM have formed a pre-poll alliance and can prove to be a formidable challenge to the BJP, provided the three parties iron out their seat-sharing issues.

Besides, an analysis of the 2014 state elections shows that BJP’s reliance on a multi-cornered contest favouring them is likely to cause a dent.

In 2014, there were five seats where the victory margin was less than 1,000 votes. Of these, two went to the BJP, while the Congress, JMM and AJSU got one each. Plus, the Congress and the JMM were runners up in three seats, whereas the BJP was runner up only in one.

Again, there were 13 seats where the victory margin was between 1,000 and 5,000 votes. Of these, the BJP won five, while the JMM bagged two, and the JVM, AJSU and two others won one seat each. Here too, the BJP was runner up in four constituencies, while the JMM, Congress and RJD were runners up in six seats combined.

Seats, where the victory margin was more than 30,000 was where the BJP fared well. However, BJP leaders contend that vote transfer is not a given in Jharkhand. Incumbent Jharkhand Chief Minister Raghubar Das told the newspaper, “Just because there is an alliance among leaders does not mean that the support base will follow.”

Sharing the same sentiment, psephologist Abhay Kumar, formerly with the Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), said the 2014 results “cannot be extrapolated to 2019”.

Citing that it is the saffron party that has been able to provide Jharkhand with its only full-term government over the past five years, Kumar said, “The BJP’s stability in governance will be important.”

BJP, however is playing safe vis-à-vis its relationship with the AJSU. During poll rallies, party president Amit Shah refers to AJSU as an old ally, which is still a “friend”, something which JMM chief Hemant Soren believes is proof that the BJP’s solo act will backfire.

The role played by the JVM and Independents is still imponderable, as is the efficacy of the BJP’s strategy. These factors will provide a clearer picture on December 23, when the results to the Assembly elections are scheduled to be announced.

Jharkhand election: 62% turnout, sporadic violence mark first phase of voting.

Source – indiatoday.in

The first phase of the Jharkhand assembly election was held peacefully with no major untoward incident even though voting was held in 13 assembly constituencies that are severely hit by Maoist activities. However, a few incidents of sporadic violence were reported.

The first phase of Jharkhand assembly election will decide fate of 189 candidates, including 15 women nominees, will be decided in the first phase of the polling in Chatra, Gumla, Bishunpur, Lohardaga, Manika, Latehar, Panki, Daltonganj, Bishrampur, Chhatarpur, Hussainabad, Garhwa and Bhawanathpur.

The Bhawanathpur constituency has the maximum of 28 contestants, while Chatra has the lowest with nine.
An estimated 62.87 per cent votes were cast on Saturday when voting ended at 3pm. This time, the assembly election in Jharkhand is being held in five phases.

Polling officials said the polling percentage is likely to increase as voters who entered the polling stations by 3 pm were allowed to exercise their franchise.

A total of 37,83,055 electorate, including 18,01,356 women and five third-gender voters were eligible to exercise their franchise in the first phase of polling across six districts, which began at 7 am on Saturday.

BOMB BLAST

Additional Director General of Police Murari Lal Meena said Naxalites exploded a bomb near a culvert in the forests of Gumla district, but there was no casualty or damage.

“The explosion occurred near the culvert in the forests between Banalat and Biranpur villages under Bishunpur assembly constituency of the district,” Meena said.

He, however, said “peaceful” polling was held in all 13 assembly constituencies.

POLL-DAY CLASH

Palamau Deputy Commissioner-cum-Returning Officer Shantanu Agrahari said a minor clash broke out between two groups near Kosiyara polling station in Daltonganj assembly constituency.

The agitators broke the window panes of a police vehicle after Congress candidate KN Tripathi allegedly tried to enter the polling booth with arms, he said, adding, the situation was quickly brought under control.

Police have seized a pistol and three cartridges, which were allegedly in Tripathi’s possession, Agrahari said. The EC officials said women and youth were among the early voters in the first of the five-phase elections to the 81-member Jharkhand assembly.

Palamau Divisional Commissioner Manoj Kumar Jha said the timing of voting has been fixed between 7 am and 3 pm as several polling stations are in remote areas, and also due to the shorter days in winter.

WHAT’S AT STAKE?

Key candidates in the fray in today’s poll are Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) nominee and state Health Minister Ramchandra Chandravanshi from Bishrampur and state Congress president Rameshwar Oraon from the Lohardaga seat.

Oraon is taking on the former state Congress chief Sukhdeo Bhagat after the latter joined the BJP recently.

Former BJP chief whip Radhakrishna Kishore, who was denied ticket from Chhatarpur, is contesting on an All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) party ticket from the same seat.

The BJP, which is seeking a second straight win under the leadership of Chief Minister Raghubar Das, is contesting in 12 seats in the first phase while it is supporting

Independent candidate Vinod Singh from Hussainabad. The AJSU party is contesting on its own. Challenging the BJP is the opposition alliance of the

Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal.

While the Congress is contesting in six seats in the first phase, the JMM is fighting in four and the RJD in three constituencies in the first phase.

The other parties contesting the elections are Babulal Marandi’s Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik), Janata Dal (United) and the Left parties.

The rest of the four phases for the 81-member assembly will be held on December 7, 12, 16 and 20.
Counting is scheduled on December 23.

Why Jharkhand election is a headache for Modi-Shah.

Source – indiatoday.in

Jharkhand goes to the polls in five phases between November 30 and December 20 for 81 assembly seats. The BJP faces a stiff challenge to retain Jharkhand in order to wrest the trend of losing states in the past one year.

In November 2018, the BJP boasted of having chief ministers in 16 states. Now, the party is in power in 12. The loss of four states happened on both sides of the 2019 Lok Sabha election in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi pulled off a spectacular victory for the BJP.

The challenge looks particularly daunting in Jharkhand in view of the assembly election results in Maharashtra and Haryana, and subsequent trouble with allies. The less than expected performance and bitter experience with its allies in Maharashtra and Haryana is believed to be weighing heavily in the minds of BJP leadership headed by Modi-Shah.

In Jharkhand, the BJP has not yet sealed a seat-sharing arrangement with its existing ally — the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU). The LJP, its ally in Bihar, too wanted to join hands with it but has now decided to contest the election on its own.

On the other hand, the Opposition parties – the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), the Congress and the RJD – have inked a seat-sharing formula after returning from the verge of collapse. On paper, the Opposition alliance looks formidable in Jharkhand.

In the run-up to the Jharkhand assembly elections, the BJP has suffered setbacks with leaders, including chief whip Radhakrishna Kishore, switching sides to the AJSU and complicating matters. State elections have emerged as a new headache for the BJP.

STATE ELECTIONS ARE BJP’S NEW WORRY

In state elections, where PM Modi is not a direct factor, the BJP has struggled. Many believed that the triple loss in the Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh was a mere blip or the call of democracy-to change governments in elections. But the recent elections in Maharashtra and Haryana reinforce the critics’ assertion that the BJP is on a sticky ground in states where PM Modi’s personal appeal is not a moving factor.

The BJP barely scraped through in Haryana piggybacking on fledgling Jannayak Janata Party of Dushyant Chautala, who emerged as the kingmaker. The BJP’s claim of providing good governance for five years failed to find enough echo from the people and the party fell short of majority.

In Maharashtra, the BJP leadership of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah got foxed by rather underestimated politician Uddhav Thackeray, who is most-likely to be the next chief minister in the state.

The BJP contested Maharashtra election in alliance with the Shiv Sena, which changed track after election results left BJP short of majority, though the coalition got a clear mandate to form government. Now, the BJP is likely to sit in Opposition and its rivals, the Congress and the NCP, to share power with the Shiv Sena.

MAHARASHTRA-HARAYANA HANGOVER IN JHARKHAND

There is apprehension in the BJP camp that Jharkhand may follow the trend seen in Haryana or Maharashtra. The BJP leadership has been in dilemma whether it should go solo in the election or concede more seats (than it wants) to its ally/ies in Jharkhand.

In 2014, the BJP contested Jharkhand Assembly election in alliance with the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU). They got 43 of 81 assembly seats defeating the grand-alliance of the Congress, the RJD, the JDU and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM).

Now, the BJP-AJSU alliance is almost over. The BJP has been announcing its nominees without clarifying if it will continue its alliance with the AJSU, which is the oldest ally of the party in the state. The two parties have never contested separately since the formation of Jharkhand in 2000.

The AJSU and the LJP of Ram Vilas Paswan (the party is now led by his son Chirag Paswan), however had expressed willingness to contest Jharkhand election in alliance with the BJP. But the LJP last week announced it will go alone. The AJSU is also apparently forced to chart the same path. Both are constituents of the BJP-led NDA.

It seems the post-election politics of Maharashtra and Haryana is hovering over Jharkhand election, making it difficult for the BJP leadership of Modi-Shah to take a decision about pre-poll alliance.

In Haryana, it went alone and fell short of majority. In Maharashtra, it allied with the Shiv Sena but the Shiv Sena dumped it after election results were announced.

The BJP, therefore, finds itself in a catch-22 situation in Jharkhand. It is not sure about forming alliance but it is not looking confident either to win majority on its own. In 2014 assembly election too, it wasn’t able to cross the half-way mark on its own.

FOR MODI VERSUS FOR BJP?

There is more to worry for the BJP. In its 2014 state election victory, the BJP had polled fewer votes than it secured in the Lok Sabha, when Narendra Modi was seeking his first term as the prime minister. The BJP won 12 of 14 Lok Sabha seats in 2014 polling 40 per cent votes in the state.

In 2014 Jharkhand election, BJP’s vote share was only 31 per cent. With ally AJSU, the total vote share was less than 35 per cent – a dip of over 5 per cent in mere five months.

In 2019 Lok Sabha election, the Modi wave saw the BJP-led coalition garner over 55 per cent votes with the BJP winning 11 seats and the AJSU one. At stake was the second term for PM Modi against a belligerent “chowkidar chor hai” campaign by Rahul Gandhi of the Congress.

In both Haryana and Maharashtra elections, however, the BJP’s vote share dipped significantly compared to its performance in the Lok Sabha election. The BJP, even PM Modi himself, could not convince voters that a vote for state government would be a vote for PM Modi.

Going into the assembly polls in Jaharkhand, the party has set a target of winning 65 of the 81 seats but it fears a repeat of what happened in Maharashtra or Haryana.