Is BJP a reliable ally? A look at its alliance politics beyond Maharashtra logjam.

Source – indiatoday.in

I am not a BJP wala. I do not lie. With these words, Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray parted ways with the BJP earlier this month asserting that the leading NDA partner is not trustworthy. The Shiv Sena leaders have referred to the troublesome relation of the BJP with alliance partners in other states.

Recently, the Lok Jan Shakti Party (LJP) complained that the BJP did not entertain its request of a respectable tie-up in Jharkhand for the upcoming assembly election. The BJP and the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) too fell out failing to arrive at a seat-sharing agreement. The AJSU is the oldest ally of the BJP in Jharkhand. They have never fought state elections separately before.

During the Haryana Assembly election, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) lashed out at the BJP on quite a few occasions. The SAD had in June this year proposed an alliance with the BJP in Haryana but the BJP did not pay heed to the call.

In the run-up to the Haryana election, the BJP inducted its lone MLA in the party prompting SAD chief Sukhbir Badal to remind the BJP of maryada (dignity) of the alliance. Later, campaigning for the Haryana election, Sukhbir Badal hit out at the BJP claiming those sitting in power [read the BJP] will be soon in Opposition.

At the NDA meeting in New Delhi last week, LJP president Chirag Paswan stressed the need for a convener of the alliance saying the presence of the Shiv Sena was missed.

This appears as if the alliance partners of the BJP are not comfortable with the parties at present. But a look at the BJP’s relationship with its alliance partners points to a similar tumultuous equation.

THE JAN SANG DAYS

The RSS floated the Bharatiya Jan Sangh (BJS) in 1951 making debut politics. The BJS tasted power for the first time in 1967 in Madhya Pradesh when about 60 MLAs of the ruling Congress defected to the Opposition and various parties including the BJS formed the Sanyukta Vidhayak Dal. A government was formed but soon they started quarreling over ideological differences. The government collapsed in 1969.

At the national level, the BJS ceased to exist in 1977 merging itself with other anti-Congress parties to form the Janata Party. It was a grand-alliance of the time. It too collapsed in less than three years. These experiences left such a deep imprint on the RSS-trained leaders of the Jan Sangh that when they founded the BJP (the new version of the BJS) in 1980, they were reluctant to go for alliances.

The Shiv Sena came along over 1984-89 period in Maharashtra, where the BJP was very weak those days. By 1989, the BJP had gained enough strength. The Janata Dal (of VP Singh, Chandrashekhar and Devi Lal) had fallen short of a majority in the election. The BJP had the choice of joining the government giving it stability but it refused. BJP leadership of LK Advani and Atal Bihari Vajpayee, instead, extended outside support to the VP Singh government. They withdrew support over Mandal-Kamandal episode.

NEW ERA OF ALLIANCES

In 1996, the BJP emerged as the single-largest party in the Lok Sabha election. But 161 seats in the Lok Sabha election at that time appeared as the BJP’s cap forcing it to consider a wider alliance to see it gets power at the Centre. Vajpayee was sworn in as the prime minister with a futuristic strategy. Back then, Advani was considered hardline Hindutva leader and Vajpayee moderate.

In 1998 emerged a multi-party alliance called the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) that the BJP stitched up to come to power. The Janata Dal (United), the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), the Janata Dal (Secular), the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference, the Shiv Sena, the Shiromani Akali Dal, the Biju Janata Dal, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and the Haryana Vikas Party were the BJP’s allies among others.

Over the next six years, the AIADMK exited the NDA but the DMK joined in; the National Conference walked away but the Peoples Democratic Party joined. The Trinamool Congress Party of Mamata Banerjee was a part of the NDA. Banerjee was a senior minister in the Vajpayee government. The Lok Janshakti Party of Ram Vilas Paswan was also part of the NDA.

WHO FINDS BJP RELIABLE?

Today, only the JDU, the LJP and Shiromani Akali Dal are part of the BJP-led NDA. All others quit NDA blaming the BJP. The AIADMK of Jayalalithaa snapped ties with the BJP in 1999. The National Conference walked away in 2002, the DMK and the Haryana Vikas Party in 2004, the TMC in 2007, the BJD in 2009, the JDS in 2010, the JMM in 2012 and the list goes on.

The case of JDU is curious. Bihar Chief Minister and JDU president Nitish Kumar pulled out of the NDA in 2013 after it the BJP went ahead with Narendra Modi, then Gujarat chief minister, as its prime ministerial candidate.

The BJP tried to compensate the loss of JDU in Bihar by cobbling up an alliance with caste-based parties such as the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party of Upendra Kushwaha and the Hindustani Awam Party of Jeetan Ram Manjhi. The JDU came back in 2017. The RLSP and the HAM broke alliance with the BJP calling it unreliable.

The LJP too had parted ways with the BJP in 2002 in the wake of Gujarat riots. It joined hands with the BJP again in 2014. This gave Paswan the sobriquet of the political weathercock.

Most of these parties have complained that the BJP piggybacked on them to increase its vote base at their cost. Except for Punjab, where the SAD’s appeal on Sikhism plank continues to be in the lead, the charge against the BJP holds true. In most of the states, where the BJP has expanded its base, it has turned itself into a competitor of its alliance partner.

In Maharashtra, the BJP and the Shiv Sena largely compete for the same vote bank but greater resource availability helped the BJP expand at a faster rate. Shiv Sena mouthpiece Saamana today compared the BJP with medieval marauder Muhammad Gori who invaded India multiple times to plunder its wealth ruing that the Bal Thackeray-led party allowed the BJP flourish in Maharashtra. In Odisha, Karnataka, Bihar, Haryana and the Northeast, the BJP has followed almost the same template.

WHAT IS THE LATEST TREND?

At least half-a-dozen parties have broken their alliances with the BJP in the past two years. In 2014, the Swabhimani Paksha of Raju Shetti was said to have played an important role in the consolidation of votes in favour of the BJP in Maharashtra. The BJP was then focusing on aligning with smaller parties with the focused support group. Alliance with the Swabhimani Paksh was one such decision taken by the party.

The TDP of Chandrababu Naidu had an open fight with PM Modi and the BJP leadership and walked away from the NDA in 2018. The same year, the PDP fought with the BJP in Jammu and Kashmir and the alliance fell. The RLSP broke alliance with the BJP in Bihar in 2019.

The Gorkha Janmukti Morcha snapped ties with the BJP in West Bengal, where it was considered as a strong ally of the BJP with popular support in and around Darjeeling. The Shiv Sena and the AJSU have not ended their tie-up with the BJP blaming the party leadership of being un-accommodative to their aspirations and concerns.

Jharkhand Assembly Election 2019: JD(U) backs ex-minister Saryu Roy against CM Raghubar Das.

Source – hindustantimes.com

The Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) who are partners in Bihar have taken the gloves off in Jharkhand over former state minister Saryu Roy who is contesting the assembly election against chief minister Raghubar Das from Jamshedpur-East.

This became apparent with a senior JD (U) leader extending full support to Roy and also claiming that the party’s president and Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar could campaign in Jamshedpur for Roy.

“If Saryu Roy requests Nitish Kumar to campaign for him, we all would request the JD-U president to campaign for Roy. We will extend all possible support to Saryu Roy. Every one of us will camp in Jamshedpur if need be. He has always been raising his voice against corruption. He continued to fight corruption in high places in spite of being in the government,” Lalan Singh, senior JD (U) leader and MP from Munger in Bihar told reporters in Ranchi on Tuesday.

Singh further said they felt Roy was denied ticket because he kept raising his voice against corruption in Jharkhand.

“If you deny someone ticket for opposing corruption, what will he do? Naturally he decided to symbolically fight against the CM and filed nomination. JD (U) welcomes and fully supports his decision. We have already withdrawn our candidate there,” Singh said.

The BJP tried to play down the electoral showdown with the JD (U).

BJP spokesperson in Jharkhand, Pratul Shahdeo said, “We don’t have alliance with JD (U) in Jharkhand. Our alliance with them is restricted to Bihar. Moreover, it is not in culture our party to comment on internal decisions of other parties.”

Meanwhile, Roy said on Tuesday that he has applied for three symbols – farmer on tractor, gas cylinder and sewing machine which will be decided on November 21. Interestingly, JD (U)’s official poll symbol in Jharkhand is farmer riding tractor, which is almost similar to what Roy has suggested as his choice.

“If there is no official JD (U) candidate in a particular seat, the DC can allot farmer riding tractor symbol to independent candidate,” Salkhan Murmu, JD (U) Jharkhand president said.

Leaders close to Roy said that former BJP leader Shatrughan Sinha, former union minister Yashwant Sinha have also expressed their willingness to address rallies and hold roadshows in Jamshedpur to support Roy.

“Union minister Ramvilas Paswan too is being requested to send Chirag Paswan if he is not able to come for campaigning in favour of Roy,” one of the leader quoted above said.

JMM working president Hemant Soren has extended unconditional support and appealed all opposition parties to extend support to Roy. However, the Congress, which got the Jamsedhpur East in seat sharing with JMM has fielded its national spokesperson Gourav Vallabh and is yet to take a call on his withdrawing his candidature.

On Monday, the JD (U) had announced that it would not field candidate against Roy from Jamsedhpur East. It had asked its official candidate Sanjay Thakur for Jamshedpur-East and Sanjiv Acharya for Jamshedpur-West to withdraw from fray. Neither of them filed nominations.

Samajwadi Party (SP) state general secretary Ali Raza said their candidates too did not file nomination from the seat in support of Roy.

At Least Dozen MPs, MLAs in Touch With Me’: Ahead of Jharkhand Polls, Hemant Soren Calls BJP ‘Sinking Ship.

Source – news18.com

Former Chief Minister and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) leader Hemant Soren is quite upbeat about the upcoming elections in Jharkhand. With just 11 days to go for polling day, Soren has claimed that at least one dozen MPs and MLAs from BJP are looking to jump ship and are in touch with him.

In an interview with News18, Soren spoke about whether the Supreme Court’s recent verdict on the Ayodhya land dispute will have any impact on the assembly polls, how talks with alliance partners are coming along, the effect of a five-phased election and veracity of claims that BJP is likely to collapse in the state.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is soon expected to address rallies in Palamu, other national stalwarts of the party will also address the people of Jharkhand in campaign rallies where among other things, the Supreme Court’s recent Ayodhya verdict could be a talking point, does this worry you?

There is a place to talk about national issues. It is called Lok Sabha. That’s where people have given the BJP majority so that it can effectively deal with national issues. The upcoming elections are for the state of Jharkhand. If we also talk about national issues in these polls, then where will we talk about the issues of Jharkhand? In the campaign of Jammu and Kashmir or Gujarat?

Here people are dying of hunger, youths don’t have jobs, people don’t have money, banks are collapsing, infrastructure is nowhere. In all major indices, from hunger to education, Jharkhand has slipped under BJP Chief Minister Raghubar Das’ tenure. Since the state of Jharkhand was created, the last five years have been the worst, by far.

But you also raised these issues of hunger-related deaths, of forest rights etc, in Lok Sabha polls and they did not seem to have found any resonance with people.

It’s not as if these issues did not find any resonance with people. Look at the results of the five reserved Lok Sabha seats. BJP managed to just scrape through.

Why is your alliance (with Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal) dithering on the issue of declaring you as the CM face?

There is no confusion. Congress leader RPN Singh has clearly stated that Hemant Soren will be the CM face of the alliance. There is no confusion now. On the other hand you should ask the same question to BJP. Till very recently they used to say that Raghubar Das was their CM face. Why aren’t they saying this now? Why are they suddenly quiet on the issue? Ask them to clarify who their CM face is. BJP is a sinking ship.

Do you consider recent developments like their senior leader Sarayu Rai’s quitting the party, and their alliance partner AAJSU’s breaking ranks with BJP, as indicators?

It isn’t just that. You look anywhere and you’ll find that BJP’s Jharkhand unit is in a state of collapse. There is rampant infighting within BJP and open tussle with BJP’s alliance partners. Why are AAJSU, JD(U), LJP fighting these polls individually? There is pandemonium in BJP’s ranks. It is clear that they cannot carry alliance partners with them. And because of the arrogance of their top leadership, their old hands, who feel slighted, are trying to find a way out.

Are any of them in touch with you?

At least one dozen BJP MPs and MLAs have contacted me. They want to switch over. They know BJP is a sinking ship. Public sentiment is palpably against them.

How do you look at the decision by the Election Commission to conduct the polls over five phases?

For someone like us, a state political outfit, it is a huge challenge. For someone like the BJP, it wouldn’t matter much. They have unlimited resources and cadre which they shift wherever they want, however many times they want. Our worker cannot leave everything else and only do this. In other circumstances, it should have broken the morale of our workers but our morale is quite high. People are quite aggressive. Everyone wants to see the BJP out. There is no tolerance for the present dispensation.

And while as a political outfit we respect the decisions of the EC, to be honest, I don’t understand the logic of having the elections in five phases. The BJP kept talking about ‘double engine ki sarkar’ when they formed governments both at the Centre and the state. They talked about finishing the Naxals and bringing development to the state with double the speed. But now the EC itself has indicated, by conducting elections over five phases, that everything is not fine in the state; that the Naxal menace is far from over. They should admit that.

Almost every party is announcing reservation in poll campaigns these days. You have also announced 75% reservation in private jobs for youths and 50% reservation to women in jobs. Could you explain the logic behind this?

The decision to announce reservation in jobs for women isn’t new. I decided to do it when we were in power in our previous term but the successive BJP government decided against it. In our state women have been working really hard for their families. There are districts where women outnumber men. They are a significant working force. But when we see outside, we find, for similar job profiles, women from Kerala being referred to as ‘nurses’ and those from Jharkhand being referred to as ‘Dai’. It shames me. The same holds true for the youth, which today doesn’t have any jobs. If youths find jobs and get good education they will be able to help improve literacy levels in their districts and raise the employability of those around them as well. This is not about votes. This is about helping the future generations flourish.

Tejashwi Yadav had met you just before seat sharing was announced by you and the Congress. You had announced him as an alliance partner but RJD has reportedly been unhappy with seat distribution. Is RJD still on board?

RJD is very much part of the alliance. We are all working towards finalising our campaigning and soon you will see Tejashwi-jee campaigning with us.

BJP’s slogan this time is ‘Ab ki baar 65 paar’. How do you assess their position. Also have you set a target for the alliance?

Issuing and working in numbers are tropes of the business community. We have been a group of political activists. We don’t speak that language. We only talk about victory or defeat. We think we will win and win big.

Jharkhand BJP leader Saryu Roy to contest against CM Raghubar Das in assembly polls.

Source – indiatoday.in

Peeved about his name not featuring in the list of 72 candidates announced so far for the assembly polls, senior BJP leader Saryu Roy on Sunday said he will contest against Chief Minister Raghubar Das as an Independent.

Roy said he will contest from the Jamshedpur (East) and Jamshedpur (West) assembly constituencies. He had won from the Jamshedpur (West) seat in the 2014 polls.

He tendered his resignation from the state Cabinet and assembly membership on Sunday evening.

In a letter addressed to Governor Droupadi Murmu, Roy said he is resigning from the ministry and that it be accepted with immediate effect.

Earlier in the day, Roy had said he would resign on Monday.

Roy was the Food, Public Distribution and Consumer Affairs Minister in the Jharkhand Cabinet.

“I will file my nomination papers from both the assembly constituencies tomorrow,” he said.

Roy’s move comes in the wake of his name not finding a place in the first four lists of 72 candidates declared by the BJP for the 81-member assembly in Jharkhand, which is going to polls in five phases between November 30 and December 20.

Asked if he was taking on his own party by deciding to contest against the chief minister, he said, “Let the BJP take action against me.”

The BJP has re-nominated Das from the Jamshedpur (East) seat, while it is yet to announce its candidate from Jamshedpur (West). The two seats will go to polls in the second phase on December 7 and the last date of filing papers is Monday.

To another query on whether contesting elections from two seats would be a tall order, Roy said, “Not at all. The geography of the city (Jamshedpur), its people and issues are the same. My supporters will campaign from my home constituency, while I will concentrate on Jamshedpur (East).”

BJP Blames Jharkhand Ally AJSU For Failing To Reach Seat Adjustments.

Source – ndtv.com

JAMSHEDPUR: The BJP on Monday held its NDA ally AJSU party responsible for not being able to reach a seat-sharing arrangement between the two parties for the Jharkhand assembly polls.

Except for two-three seats, the AJSU party cannot make any dent into the BJP’s poll prospects in the elections, BJP state unit president Laxman Gilua claimed.

“The BJP had given eight seats to the AJSU party in 2014 assembly polls. This time, the party was ready to consider 13 to 14 seats. But AJSU president Sudesh Mahto was rigid on his claim of 18 to 22 seats,” Mr Gilua told PTI.

Mr Mahto had earlier said his party had given a list of 17 candidates for consideration by the BJP.

“The BJP is a national party and should be respected as such. They should have agreed on seats proportionately,” he said referring to the regional status the AJSU party has.

So far the BJP has announced names of 73 contestants for the five-phase Jharkhand assembly elections to be held between November 30 and December 23. On the other hand, the AJSU party has released lists of 27 candidates so far for the 81-member House.

Till now, the two NDA partners will come face to face in 19 constituencies.

However, none of them has officially admitted that they have parted ways, leaving the scope open for a post-poll alliance.

The BJP and the AJSU have been allies ever since Jharkhand was carved out of Bihar on November 15, 2000, with Mahto going on to become a deputy chief minister with the Home portfolio.

Mr Mahto lost the 2014 election from Silli seat and also failed to win a bypoll to the same constituency later.


Mahagathbandhan will come to power in Jharkhand: Congress leader Sanjay Paswan.

Source – indiatoday.in

Jharkhand Congress Working President Sanjay Paswan has claimed that the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ will come to power in the mineral-rich state as the people have witnessed that the BJP-ruled government has not been able to deliver on any front in the last five years.

When asked why being a national party Congress was contesting on lesser seats than a regional party like the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), Paswan told IANS: “Congress always believed on coalition dharma. Wherever we think we are strong, we are contesting. We (JMM, Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal) share a same ideology.

“If they think we are afraid of the BJP, it is their misunderstanding. People of Jharkhand have seen them in the past five years. Infact, the BJP is themselves afraid of losing as they are contesting the elections in five phases. Once they said they will remove ‘Naxalism’ from our state, when they chaim it has been removed then why are the elections going four five phases?”

“They (AJSU) are more or less the same. I feel after the results they will again switch hands with them (BJP). We have seen them for last 19 years, we don’t know about them.”

If it comes to power, the Mahagathbandhan’s roadmap would be about taking Jharkhand on the top of the country, Paswan said.

“Firstly, we will provide employment to the youth of Jharkhand so we don’t have to go away from our state. The present BJP-led government did nothing for the youths except looting them. They have given all the mineral-rich lands to the industrialists who are getting benefitted while our youths are struggling for jobs.

“We will change whatever has happened. Every single person of Jharkhand will be happy when we take charge,” he concluded.

Jharkhand will go to polls in five phases from November 30.

Fighting in alliance with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Congress is contesting 31 of the state’s 81 seats, the JMM 43, and the RJD seven.

Jharkhand polls 2019: Congress leaves Ranchi for JMM to fight BJP.

Source – cnbctv18.com

In the upcoming Jharkhand Assembly polls, the state capital Ranchi seat is going to witness an interesting tussle between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Opposition alliance.

The BJP has been winning this seat for the past 29 years and this time the JMM backed by the Congress wants to wrest the seat away.

The BJP has been winning the seat continuously for the past six elections and this time the Congress has decided not to field its candidate, but to support the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) candidate as part of the opposition alliance.

Although the Congress workers have opposed this, the party leadership decided to support the JMM candidate Mahua Maji. The BJP will continue with its sitting MLA S.P. Singh.

In the last Assembly polls, Singh had defeated JMM candidate Mahua Maji by around 59,000 votes, while the Congress candidate lost his security deposit after getting a mere 7,935 votes.

In fact, out of a total of 17 candidates who had contested the last election, 15 lost their security deposits.

The continuous poor performance on the seat forced the Congress to rework its strategy. And, finally, it decided to support the JMM candidate.

The BJP on the other hand has been winning this seat continuously since the formation of the state in 1990.

In 1995 Yashwant Sinha won this seat, but a year later he moved to Rajya Sabha. BJP fielded S.P. Singh from this seat then, and he has been winning this seat ever since.

A senior journalist from Ranchi, Sampurnanand Bharati said: “Ranchi is one of the prominent seats in the state and so all want to win from Ranchi.

“The Congress has withdrawn here in favour of the JMM. The BJP will be aggressive to retain this seat and there is a renewed vigour in the opposition alliance after putting up their one candidate.”

The elections in Ranchi will be held during the third phase of the Jharkhand polls, for which the notification came on Saturday.

The Ranchi district has five assembly seats — Ranchi, Silli, Kanke, Khijri and Hatia. The candidates can file their nominations till November 25.The Election Commission will do the scrutiny on November 26, and the candidates have the time to withdraw till November 28. The polls to these seats will be held on December 12.

Jharkhand Assembly elections: Congress leaves Ranchi for JMM to fight BJP.

Source – newindianexpress.com

RANCHI: In the upcoming Jharkhand Assembly polls, the state capital Ranchi seat is going to witness an interesting tussle between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Opposition alliance.

The BJP has been winning this seat for the past 29 years and this time the JMM backed by the Congress wants to wrest the seat away.

The BJP has been winning the seat continuously for the past six elections and this time the Congress has decided not to field its candidate, but to support the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) candidate as part of the opposition alliance.

Although the Congress workers have opposed this, the party leadership decided to support the JMM candidate Mahua Maji. The BJP will continue with its sitting MLA S.P. Singh.

In the last Assembly polls, Singh had defeated JMM candidate Mahua Maji by around 59,000 votes, while the Congress candidate lost his security deposit after getting a mere 7,935 votes. In fact, out of a total of 17 candidates who had contested the last election, 15 lost their security deposits.

The continuous poor performance on the seat forced the Congress to rework its strategy. And, finally, it decided to support the JMM candidate.

The BJP, on the other hand, has been winning this seat continuously since the formation of the state in 1990.

In 1995 Yashwant Sinha won this seat, but a year later he moved to Rajya Sabha. BJP fielded S.P. Singh from this seat then, and he has been winning this seat ever since.

A senior journalist from Ranchi, Sampurnanand Bharati said: “Ranchi is one of the prominent seats in the state and so all want to win from here.

“The Congress has withdrawn here in favour of the JMM. The BJP will be aggressive to retain this seat and there is a renewed vigour in the opposition alliance after putting up their one candidate.”

The elections in Ranchi will be held during the third phase of the Jharkhand polls, for which the notification came on Saturday.

The Ranchi district has five Assembly seats — Ranchi, Silli, Kanke, Khijri and Hatia. The candidates can file their nominations till November 25. The Election Commission will do the scrutiny on November 26, and the candidates have the time to withdraw till November 28. The polls to these seats will be held on December 12.

BJP banking on multi-polar contest in Jharkhand assembly election 2019.

Source – hindustantimes.com

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has set itself a target of winning more than 65 seats in the 81-member Jharkhand assembly, is banking on a multi-polar contest in the state to edge past its opponents. The Party which is fighting to retain the assembly in the state has not been able to iron out differences with ally All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) over seat sharing, even as other NDA allies the Janata Dal (United) or JDU and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) are contesting alone. Jharkhand will vote in five phases, starting November 30.

LJP president Chirag Paswan on Tuesday said his party will contest 50 seats in the state on its own and announced names of five candidates for polls. He told mediapersons that the LJP’s offer for an alliance to the BJP went unanswered. The other ally JDU was the first off the block to announce that it would go alone.

Even as the saffron party is downplaying friction between allies, it is hopeful that the absence of a contender to incumbent CM Raghubar Das from the opposition side could work to its advantage in fighting battling anti-incumbency and infighting.

In the state with a large Tribal population, the BJP will have to defend its performance on issues such as of unemployment, farm distress and economic slowdown.

“There is no one bloc that will gain the anti-incumbency vote. There are many factions in the opposition camp as well,” a party functionary said.

On whether the Sena-BJP fallout in Maharashtra has had an impact on the talks with allies in the poll-bound state, a state functionary said the party is making sure that the pre-poll discussions leave no scope for digressions later. He also acknowledged that there has been “discomfort” over the decision to give Das a second turn.

In the last assembly poll, the BJP had won 37 seats will AJSU had won 5 seats.

To be sure, the opposition Mahagathbandhan of the opposition has on board the Congress, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and seat sharing discussions are on with the RJD. Former chief minister Babulal Marandi’s Jharkhand Vikas Morcha(Prajatantrik) has also opted to go alone.

“The party is ensuring that there is no repetition of a Maharashtra-like situation where rebels cut into the BJP vote share and came in the way of party getting a clear majority. It is also not worried about LJP and JDU contesting alone as these are allies of the NDA at the centre,” said the second functionary.

Though the party high command has indicated that Das will be leading the state unit into the electoral battle, a section within the party had expressed concern over naming Das as the CM for a second term.

“There have been reports of disagreement within the party unit at the state level. But for now the leadership has thrown its weight behind Das,” said a party functionary not wishing to be named.

The fissures came to fore in February this year, when Saryu Rai, minister of food and public distribution wrote to BJP national president Amit Shah, expressing concern over the Jharkhand chief minister’s style of functioning. He had also According alleged that the Jharkhand government was protecting the interests of a few business houses.

On Sunday while announcing the first set of contenders for the polls, BJP working President JP Nadda said had given Das a pat on the back. “Five years back Jharkhand was known for corruption and instability. Today, under the leadership of Raghubar Das, Jharkhand is known for its stability and development. Corruption has been brought down and the state is moving towards development,” Nadda said.

Even as the party refuted all allegations against Das, a second state functionary said there have been concerns about the choice of contestants as well; a case in point being Bhanu Pratap Shahi, a former minister in the Madhu Koda’s government and is accused in a Rs 130 crore medicine scam, who will contest from Bhavnathpur Assembly constituency and Shashi Bhushan, accused of murder, who is being fielded from Panki.

Why Jharkhand election is a headache for Modi-Shah.

Source – indiatoday.in

Jharkhand goes to the polls in five phases between November 30 and December 20 for 81 assembly seats. The BJP faces a stiff challenge to retain Jharkhand in order to wrest the trend of losing states in the past one year.

In November 2018, the BJP boasted of having chief ministers in 16 states. Now, the party is in power in 12. The loss of four states happened on both sides of the 2019 Lok Sabha election in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi pulled off a spectacular victory for the BJP.

The challenge looks particularly daunting in Jharkhand in view of the assembly election results in Maharashtra and Haryana, and subsequent trouble with allies. The less than expected performance and bitter experience with its allies in Maharashtra and Haryana is believed to be weighing heavily in the minds of BJP leadership headed by Modi-Shah.

In Jharkhand, the BJP has not yet sealed a seat-sharing arrangement with its existing ally — the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU). The LJP, its ally in Bihar, too wanted to join hands with it but has now decided to contest the election on its own.

On the other hand, the Opposition parties – the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), the Congress and the RJD – have inked a seat-sharing formula after returning from the verge of collapse. On paper, the Opposition alliance looks formidable in Jharkhand.

In the run-up to the Jharkhand assembly elections, the BJP has suffered setbacks with leaders, including chief whip Radhakrishna Kishore, switching sides to the AJSU and complicating matters. State elections have emerged as a new headache for the BJP.

STATE ELECTIONS ARE BJP’S NEW WORRY

In state elections, where PM Modi is not a direct factor, the BJP has struggled. Many believed that the triple loss in the Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh was a mere blip or the call of democracy-to change governments in elections. But the recent elections in Maharashtra and Haryana reinforce the critics’ assertion that the BJP is on a sticky ground in states where PM Modi’s personal appeal is not a moving factor.

The BJP barely scraped through in Haryana piggybacking on fledgling Jannayak Janata Party of Dushyant Chautala, who emerged as the kingmaker. The BJP’s claim of providing good governance for five years failed to find enough echo from the people and the party fell short of majority.

In Maharashtra, the BJP leadership of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah got foxed by rather underestimated politician Uddhav Thackeray, who is most-likely to be the next chief minister in the state.

The BJP contested Maharashtra election in alliance with the Shiv Sena, which changed track after election results left BJP short of majority, though the coalition got a clear mandate to form government. Now, the BJP is likely to sit in Opposition and its rivals, the Congress and the NCP, to share power with the Shiv Sena.

MAHARASHTRA-HARAYANA HANGOVER IN JHARKHAND

There is apprehension in the BJP camp that Jharkhand may follow the trend seen in Haryana or Maharashtra. The BJP leadership has been in dilemma whether it should go solo in the election or concede more seats (than it wants) to its ally/ies in Jharkhand.

In 2014, the BJP contested Jharkhand Assembly election in alliance with the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU). They got 43 of 81 assembly seats defeating the grand-alliance of the Congress, the RJD, the JDU and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM).

Now, the BJP-AJSU alliance is almost over. The BJP has been announcing its nominees without clarifying if it will continue its alliance with the AJSU, which is the oldest ally of the party in the state. The two parties have never contested separately since the formation of Jharkhand in 2000.

The AJSU and the LJP of Ram Vilas Paswan (the party is now led by his son Chirag Paswan), however had expressed willingness to contest Jharkhand election in alliance with the BJP. But the LJP last week announced it will go alone. The AJSU is also apparently forced to chart the same path. Both are constituents of the BJP-led NDA.

It seems the post-election politics of Maharashtra and Haryana is hovering over Jharkhand election, making it difficult for the BJP leadership of Modi-Shah to take a decision about pre-poll alliance.

In Haryana, it went alone and fell short of majority. In Maharashtra, it allied with the Shiv Sena but the Shiv Sena dumped it after election results were announced.

The BJP, therefore, finds itself in a catch-22 situation in Jharkhand. It is not sure about forming alliance but it is not looking confident either to win majority on its own. In 2014 assembly election too, it wasn’t able to cross the half-way mark on its own.

FOR MODI VERSUS FOR BJP?

There is more to worry for the BJP. In its 2014 state election victory, the BJP had polled fewer votes than it secured in the Lok Sabha, when Narendra Modi was seeking his first term as the prime minister. The BJP won 12 of 14 Lok Sabha seats in 2014 polling 40 per cent votes in the state.

In 2014 Jharkhand election, BJP’s vote share was only 31 per cent. With ally AJSU, the total vote share was less than 35 per cent – a dip of over 5 per cent in mere five months.

In 2019 Lok Sabha election, the Modi wave saw the BJP-led coalition garner over 55 per cent votes with the BJP winning 11 seats and the AJSU one. At stake was the second term for PM Modi against a belligerent “chowkidar chor hai” campaign by Rahul Gandhi of the Congress.

In both Haryana and Maharashtra elections, however, the BJP’s vote share dipped significantly compared to its performance in the Lok Sabha election. The BJP, even PM Modi himself, could not convince voters that a vote for state government would be a vote for PM Modi.

Going into the assembly polls in Jaharkhand, the party has set a target of winning 65 of the 81 seats but it fears a repeat of what happened in Maharashtra or Haryana.