Tag: BJP

Party can wrest Bihar on its own: BJP’s Paswan.

Source – asianage.com

Patna: Amid the political turmoil over leadership in the NDA, Dalit leader and BJP MLC Sanjay Paswan Wednesday said that “the party has the capability to contest and win elections in Bihar on its own”.

Sources said that his statement is likely to create tension in the NDA as the BJP top brass has already announced that the party will contest the Assembly elections in alliance with the JD(U) and chief minister Nitish Kumar will be the face of the NDA.

In September 2019, Mr Paswan had raised the political pitch by stating that the CM should hand over the reins of the state government to the BJP and move to the Centre.

On Wednesday, Mr Paswan told reporters in Patna, “It’s the people of Bihar who want to see a BJP leader becoming the chief minister.” However, he also clarified that “Prime Minister Narendra Modi and deputy chief minister Sushil Kumar Modi will take a final decision regarding the issue but the BJP is a strong party and has the capability to contest and win elections on its own in Bihar.”

Sources said that a section of the BJP led by senior leaders including Mr Paswan has been in favour of promoting firebrand leader Giriraj Singh as the chief ministerial candidate of the NDA in the state.

Mr Paswan’s statement is also crucial because the BJP is part of the state government in Bihar which is being led by the JD(U). Political analysts are of the opinion that in the current scenario where Lalu Yadav is serving a jail term in the fodder scam case, Nitish Kumar has emerged as a stronger leader in Bihar. Nitish Kumar has been the NDA’s face in Bihar since 2005.

The party’s state unit reacted strongly after Mr Paswan gave the statement. Talking to this newspaper, BJP spokesperson Nikhil Anand said, “Every decision related to the 2020 Bihar election will be taken collectively by the top leadership of NDA partners after proper consultation in due course. Party president Amit Shah has already said that Nitish Kumar will be the face of the NDA in Bihar. The statement being given by some leaders in their individual capacity is not the party’s stand.”

Amit Shah, Yogi Adityanath To Launch Pro-Citizenship Law Drive In Bihar.

Source – ndtv.com

Patna: The BJP is set to raise the pitch in Bihar in support of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, with two of its top leaders flying down to the state to address public meetings and raise awareness about the contentious legislation, a senior party official said on Monday.

Union Home Minister and party chief Amit Shah is scheduled to address people in Vaishali district on January 16, two days after Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath holds a public meeting in Gaya, state BJP vice-president Devesh Kumar told PTI.

A massive door-to-door campaign is currently underway in the state, after its launch on Sunday with rallies addressed in Patna by Union minister of state for Home Nityanand Rai and Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Kumar Modi.

Notably, Bihar witnessed massive anti-CAA protests in the recent past, including statewide bandhs called on different days by Left parties and the RJD and its allies.

A demonstration staged by a motley group of student outfits in December had caught the police off guard as the agitators went on the rampage, setting on fire a police outpost and many vehicles at Kargil Chowk, a stone’s throw from the district police chief’s office and the collectorate.

Meanwhile, the state BJP mocked Pavan K Varma, the disgruntled national general secretary of the JD(U), for his open letter in protest against “unilateral announcement” on National Population Register (NPR) exercise by the Deputy Chief Minister.

PM Modi had made the disclosure at a press conference on Saturday and issued a stern warning that “administrative and punitive action” will be taken against officials, found guilty of dereliction of duty.

Tribal disconnect, policy failures led to BJP’s loss in Jharkhand.

Source – wionews.com

When I travelled across Jharkhand- my home state in 2017 – public opinion was still in the BJP’s favour. Saffron flags could be seen outside houses in a tribal village on the outskirts of Ranchi. People said that BJP volunteers met them and that they are hopeful that the government will bring development. The changes that central schemes like Ujjwala Yojana brought were visible as many houses got gas connections. Many of them built toilets from the funds allotted by the government.

Yet, the BJP’s defeat was in the offing months ahead of the state elections. Polling in Jharkhand was underway when the Citizenship Amendment Act was passed by Parliament but national politics had little impact on the state elections which was fought on regional issues.

Raghubar Das who not only became the state’s first non-tribal chief minister, but also the first to complete a full five-year term was an unknown figure when he took over the post.

His compatriot and former CM Arjun Munda remained much popular. Munda was also a formidable tribal leader in the state.

But Das’ rift with Munda was an open secret and this meant that the latter was mostly not involved in campaigning.

It didn’t help much for an already unpopular CM to sideline well-known veterans and give tickets to Congress turncoats. Anti-corruption crusader Saryu Rai who spoke against tainted ministers in Das’ cabinet was denied a ticket.

Rai later defeated Das as an independent from Jamshedpur East.

The BJP hardly won any seat in the tribal belt while Hemant Soren’s Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) swept the region. Tribal discontent against the government was growing. One of the major concerns was proposed amendments to two land laws- the Chotanagpur Tenancy and the Santhal Parganas Act.

The amendments which did not materialise sought to lift restrictions on the sale of tribals’ land to industries. The opposition dubbed the government as ‘anti-tribal’ and a lack of communication with the people made the situation worse for the BJP.

While Das addressed rallies in Hindi, his rival Hemant Soren – a tribal leader – spoke in regional languages.

The lack of a prominent tribal face was made worse by the saffron party’s fallout with its ally All Jharkhand Student’s Union (AJSU) which was popular among the tribals as well as the OBCs.

The BJP eventually fought the elections alone in a state where no party has been able to secure a majority on its own.

Policy failures too served a blow to the BJP government. The global investors’ summit ‘Momentum Jharkhand’ gained a lot of traction but failed on the ground. The event failed to create jobs and attract investments as the state lacked enough infrastructure to support the establishment of new industries. And once again, the government failed to assuage tribal anger on the issue of land. This as new industrial projects meant acquisition of land in tribal areas.

CAA ‘anti-people’ cry in Ranchi

Source – telegraphindia.com

Nearly 2,000 people protested peacefully against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA), National Register of Citizens (NRC) and National Population Register (NPR) at the Bapu Vatika in Morabadi here on Thursday.

A large number of people comprising activists, students, women including many in burqa, and members of various minority, tribal and political parties and civil society outfits took part in the Sankalp Sabha as the protest was named, hosted by the Sajha Manch, an united forum.

They started by reading out the Preamble of the Constitution under the statue of Mahatma Gandhi.

Many speakers, irrespective of religious or political affiliation, described the CAA, NRC and NPR as “anti-constititional and anti-people”.

“The CAA violates Articles 14, 15 and 21 of the Constitution,” pointed out well-known activist Balram, adding that jal-jangal-jameen and the culture of the people of Jharkhand speak volumes about nationality. “Nothing else is required to prove it.”

“The BJP and RSS want to break the unity and social fabric of the country and spread hatred among communities,” alleged Ibrar Ahmad, the chief of the local Anjuman Islamia, a minority social outfit.

“The people of Jharkhand, in the Assembly recent polls, have rejected the BJP for its anti-people agenda,” said tribal activist Dayamani Barla, describing the CAA, NRC and NRP as “anti-people”.

Those who attended it included members of the United Milli Forum, the Anjuman Islamia, the Majlis-e-Ulema (Jharkhand), Muslim Youth Forum, political parties such as the Congress, the RJD, JVM, the Aam Admi Party and the CPI, and the organisations such as the National Alliance for People’s Movement, the All-India Students Federation, the Ulgunan Sena, the Janvadi Lekhak Sangh and the Indian People’s Theatre Association.

Former Congress Union minister Subodh Kant Sahay and other leaders sat through the proceedings to express their solidarity. Protesters carried placards with slogans opposing the CAA, NRC and NPR and “Mazhab nahi sikhata aapas mein bair rakhna from Allama Iqbal’s famous poem Saare Jahan Se Achcha…

Afzal Anees, an organiser, said the event was so peaceful that CM Hemant Soren’s motorcade passed peacefully.

Hemant, it is now known, opposed NRC and CAA and also expressed it through a two-part tweet on December 29. “I don’t think the NRC is feasible or implementable. The entire country is up in arms against CAA…”

Understanding the local, in Jharkhand and beyond.

Source – hindustantimes.com

Interpreting state election results is fraught with risk, as analysts combine explanations that rarely point in the same direction. The data suggests that state elections are fought and won on local lines, and that recognisable regional leadership can put a challenge to national political figures, as has happened in many of the recent assembly elections. At the same time, analysts try to interpret the meaning of the outcome in the larger political framework — national politics or the next state election.

In the recently concluded election in Jharkhand, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Mahagathbandan (MGB) of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, the Rashtriya Janata Party and the Congress have similar vote shares — 33.4% for the BJP and 32.6% for the MGB. But the margin suggests that the latter’s victory could easily have been a landslide but for a few thousand votes. Sixteen Members of Legislative Assembly have been elected with margins of less than 5%, nine of them from the BJP.

The MGB’s advantage lay in the tribal belts, where the JMM won 16 seats and the Congress six, against the BJP’s two. Participation was also higher in these areas, particularly the Santhal Parganas Division and the Kolhan Division, which the MGB swept. It’s proof that the alliance successfully channelised voters’ discontent with the incumbent’s performance. Given the relatively small size of the assembly — 81 seats — local and subregional dynamics are more likely to have had an impact on the outcome, more so than in larger states where those effects tend to be more diluted.

Another factor that played in favour of the alliance is the BJP’s decision to go alone in the polls. Its erstwhile partner, the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), cost the party the vote share it needed to stay ahead. The AJSU’s effort to mobilise the Other Backward Castes — the Kurmis in particular — considerably harmed the BJP, particularly in central Jharkhand, where the Congress performed well even in urban seats.

In retrospect, the decision to go alone proved fatal for a BJP led by an unpopular chief minister. Jharkhand’s history, with no party ever winning a majority in the House since the creation of the state, should have informed the party of the uphill task. The cumulative vote share of the main contenders — the BJP, Congress and JMM — over the past four elections has been 49.9% in 2005, 51.6% in 2009, 62% in 2014 and 68.7% in 2019, respectively. Even though the vote share of the main contenders is steadily going up, it still leaves one out of three voters not opting for any of the major contenders. It signifies the importance of local factors as well as local political forces.

Among the national parties, the Jharkhand success shows the Congress that it pays off to assume the role of junior partner in a pre-electoral alliance. Its candidates underperformed compared to the JMM candidates, particularly when in direct contest with the BJP. The Congress had a difficult task against the BJP in urban and general seats, but contesting fewer seats compensated for its comparative weakness of having no visible leadership. It left the stage to Hemant Soren, who was projected as the chief ministerial candidate. The Jharkhand results may lead the party to reconsider its alliance strategies in upcoming elections in Delhi and Bihar.read more

For the BJP, this is an opportunity to rethink its strategy in state elections. Though one can argue that the party has maintained its vote share, the Jharkhand result is a setback, particularly when some of its national policies are backfiring and the economy continues to be weak. Even if there is no clear impact of the current national controversies in the Jharkhand election, the fact that the BJP campaigned exactly on those issues and lost shows these issues have little endorsement at the regional level. They don’t seem to compensate for the state government’s lacklustre performance.

The BJP’s post-2014 winning spree in state polls created an image of the party’s dominance, if not hegemony. The results of the last six state elections show that while the BJP uses its strengths to make inroads in new political spaces, it is unable to use the same cards to retain power. This will have far-reaching consequences for the BJP at the Centre, which will become increasingly dependent on non-BJP states to implement its policies. Many chief ministers — including within the National Democratic Alliance — going back on the National Register of Citizens is one of the first examples of future hurdles.

In such a situation, the BJP is left with only two options. Either it tightens its grip on the organisation and centralises powers further, including pushing on levers against state governments. Or it gives some leeway to its state organisations and regional leaders, and lets them lead the fight on local or regional terms. One can, though, argue that the BJP normally doesn’t let its grip go on its regional structure. The alternative would be the route chosen by Indira Gandhi, who, faced with mounting challenges from the states, both from within and outside her party, concentrated powers further to the point of rupture with democratic norms.

Understanding the local, in Jharkhand and beyond.

Source – hindustantimes.com

Interpreting state election results is fraught with risk, as analysts combine explanations that rarely point in the same direction. The data suggests that state elections are fought and won on local lines, and that recognisable regional leadership can put a challenge to national political figures, as has happened in many of the recent assembly elections. At the same time, analysts try to interpret the meaning of the outcome in the larger political framework — national politics or the next state election.

In the recently concluded election in Jharkhand, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Mahagathbandan (MGB) of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, the Rashtriya Janata Party and the Congress have similar vote shares — 33.4% for the BJP and 32.6% for the MGB. But the margin suggests that the latter’s victory could easily have been a landslide but for a few thousand votes. Sixteen Members of Legislative Assembly have been elected with margins of less than 5%, nine of them from the BJP.

The MGB’s advantage lay in the tribal belts, where the JMM won 16 seats and the Congress six, against the BJP’s two. Participation was also higher in these areas, particularly the Santhal Parganas Division and the Kolhan Division, which the MGB swept. It’s proof that the alliance successfully channelised voters’ discontent with the incumbent’s performance. Given the relatively small size of the assembly — 81 seats — local and subregional dynamics are more likely to have had an impact on the outcome, more so than in larger states where those effects tend to be more diluted.

Another factor that played in favour of the alliance is the BJP’s decision to go alone in the polls. Its erstwhile partner, the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), cost the party the vote share it needed to stay ahead. The AJSU’s effort to mobilise the Other Backward Castes — the Kurmis in particular — considerably harmed the BJP, particularly in central Jharkhand, where the Congress performed well even in urban seats.

In retrospect, the decision to go alone proved fatal for a BJP led by an unpopular chief minister. Jharkhand’s history, with no party ever winning a majority in the House since the creation of the state, should have informed the party of the uphill task. The cumulative vote share of the main contenders — the BJP, Congress and JMM — over the past four elections has been 49.9% in 2005, 51.6% in 2009, 62% in 2014 and 68.7% in 2019, respectively. Even though the vote share of the main contenders is steadily going up, it still leaves one out of three voters not opting for any of the major contenders. It signifies the importance of local factors as well as local political forces.

Among the national parties, the Jharkhand success shows the Congress that it pays off to assume the role of junior partner in a pre-electoral alliance. Its candidates underperformed compared to the JMM candidates, particularly when in direct contest with the BJP. The Congress had a difficult task against the BJP in urban and general seats, but contesting fewer seats compensated for its comparative weakness of having no visible leadership. It left the stage to Hemant Soren, who was projected as the chief ministerial candidate. The Jharkhand results may lead the party to reconsider its alliance strategies in upcoming elections in Delhi and Bihar.

For the BJP, this is an opportunity to rethink its strategy in state elections. Though one can argue that the party has maintained its vote share, the Jharkhand result is a setback, particularly when some of its national policies are backfiring and the economy continues to be weak. Even if there is no clear impact of the current national controversies in the Jharkhand election, the fact that the BJP campaigned exactly on those issues and lost shows these issues have little endorsement at the regional level. They don’t seem to compensate for the state government’s lacklustre performance.

The BJP’s post-2014 winning spree in state polls created an image of the party’s dominance, if not hegemony. The results of the last six state elections show that while the BJP uses its strengths to make inroads in new political spaces, it is unable to use the same cards to retain power. This will have far-reaching consequences for the BJP at the Centre, which will become increasingly dependent on non-BJP states to implement its policies. Many chief ministers — including within the National Democratic Alliance — going back on the National Register of Citizens is one of the first examples of future hurdles.

In such a situation, the BJP is left with only two options. Either it tightens its grip on the organisation and centralises powers further, including pushing on levers against state governments. Or it gives some leeway to its state organisations and regional leaders, and lets them lead the fight on local or regional terms. One can, though, argue that the BJP normally doesn’t let its grip go on its regional structure. The alternative would be the route chosen by Indira Gandhi, who, faced with mounting challenges from the states, both from within and outside her party, concentrated powers further to the point of rupture with democratic norms.

After Jharkhand Loss, BJP’s Bihar Mission Is To Keep Nitish Kumar Happy.

Source – ndtv.com

Patna: With the BJP suffering a crushing defeat in the Jharkhand elections after its separation from the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), the party leadership in neighbouring Bihar on Thursday insisted that its alliance with Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal United remains strong and unaffected by differences over seat-sharing.

“The NDA is united in Bihar, and there are no differences over seat-sharing. Our alliance is led by five-time Chief Minister Nitish Kumar,” tweeted Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Kumar Modi.

Significantly, he also praised Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) leader Hemant Soren – who is set to lead the alliance government in Jharkhand – even if it was only to put down the opposition Rashtriya Janata Dal’s Tejashwi Yadav.

“The Mahagathbandhan‘s (grand alliance’s) leadership is not in the hands of a person who is educated, simple and polite like Hemant Soren, but with a young man who has been charged with 54 benami property cases at the age of 29,” Mr Modi further claimed in his tweet.

The Congress-JMM combine scored an impressive victory in Jharkhand in the just-concluded elections, bagging 47 seats as compared to the BJP’s 25 and the AJSU’s two. Even as the results were coming through, Tejashwi Yadav – who is also the leader of the opposition in the Bihar assembly – hinted that it would have a cascading effect on the assembly elections next year.

Mr Modi’s tweet was seen as a response to this claim.

Besides Jharkhand, the BJP also suffered a massive loss in Maharashtra last month after the Shiv Sena ended their 30-year-old alliance after differences over sharing the chief minister’s position on a rotational basis. After the latest defeat, Janata Dal United spokesperson Sanjay Singh warned the BJP against pushing its luck with allies. Even Shiromani Akali Dal leader Naresh Gujral said that a bulk of the ruling party’s allies were “unhappy” over issues like the National Register of Citizens (NRC).

However, BJP MP Ramkripal Yadav rejected suggestions of dissent among allies in Bihar, saying that the extraordinary work done by Nitish Kumar would ensure the coalition’s return to power next year.

For now, the party leadership in Bihar has resolved to keep the Janata Dal United in good humour at all costs. BJP leader Giriraj Singh – who had clashed with Nitish Kumar during the Patna floods earlier this year – has been told to not make any controversial statements on the Citizenship Amendment Act or the NRC, and the party is wary of the Janata Dal United seeking a bigger slice of the seat-sharing pie ahead of the polls.

Jharkhand CM-designate Hemant Soren Meets Sonia Gandhi, Invites Her for Swearing-in Ceremony.

Source – news18.com

New Delhi: Jharkhand chief minister-designate Hemant Soren on Wednesday met Congress president Sonia Gandhi and invited her for his swearing-in ceremony scheduled in Ranchi on December 29.

Soren arrived here in the afternoon and is also expected to meet Rahul Gandhi and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and invite them for the function. He was accompanied by Congress leaders KC Venugopal and RPN Singh, who is the party’s in-charge for Jharkhand.

Before the meeting with Sonia Gandhi at her 10 Janpath residence, Soren had said it is a courtesy meeting. Soren also wanted to thank the Congress and its leadership for their support in helping form a coalition government in the state, sources close to him said.

The JMM-led three-party alliance stormed to power in Jharkhand on Monday, ousting the BJP in yet another state in the Hindi heartland after the saffron party’s stupendous performance in the Lok Sabha elections.

The JMM on Wednesday said Governor Droupadi Murmu has invited its working president and chief minister-designate Hemant Soren to form government.

The governor’s invitation comes a day after Soren called on the governor at Raj Bhavan to stake claim to form government, submitting a letter of support of 50 MLAs to her.

The pre-poll opposition combines bagged 47 seats (JMM 30, Congress 16 and RJD one) in the 81-member assembly, while the three-member JVM (P) has extended “unconditional support” to Soren to form government.

Contesting the Jharkhand elections alone for the first time sans long-standing ally the AJSU Party, the ruling BJP bagged 25 seats.

How Sharad Pawar’s Maharashtra strategy shaped Congress’ Jharkhand poll campaign.

Source – hindustantimes.com

Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar’s poll strategy in Maharashtra shaped the Congress’s election campaign in Jharkhand, where it kept the focus on local issues, the economy and jobs, and avoided getting into a debate on nationalism pushed by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The political narratives were widely divergent in the tribal-dominated state where the five-phase election ended on Friday and vote counting will be taken up and the outcome announced on Monday,

The BJP made the revocation of Article 370, which scrapped the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, the construction of a Ram temple in Ayodhya and the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) the main planks of its poll campaign. The Congress and its alliance partner, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), stuck to their tactic of keeping the rivals engaged on local matters, and limited the discourse on national issues to the economic slowdown, rising prices and unemployment.

The Congress had undoubtedly taken a leaf out of Pawar’s book. The Maratha leader, during the Maharashtra election campaign, successfully skirted he BJP’s nationalism narrative and campaigned extensively on local issues.

“It was deliberate on our part to keep the elections focussed on local issues and not fall into the BJP’s trap of making it nationalism-centered. We had also received feedback that there is strong anti-incumbency against BJP chief minister Raghubar Das and as such they will raise the pitch on Article 370, Ayodhya and the CAB {Citizenship Amendment Bill, now an Act},” said senior Congress leader Ajay Sharma. “We didn’t let that happen and kept the campaign entirely Jharkhand-centric.”

Sharma handled the Congress’s campaign in Ranchi and assisted the party’s Jharkhand in-charge, RPN Singh, in planning strategy.

He said the Congress also thwarted all attempts by the BJP to make it an election centred on Prime Minister Narendra Modi; the ruling party decided to increase his number of Modi rallies it organised in Jharkhand after assessing that local leaders were not getting the required traction on the ground, he said.

The Congress had crafted a different campaign plan for each of the five phases of elections. The party had also planned to end the campaigning on December 18 with a rally by either Congress president Sonia Gandhi or party general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. The latter, eventually, addressed a public meeting along with JMM chief Hemant Soren at Pakur in the Santhal-Pargana region. Former Congress chief Rahul Gandhi addressed four rallies across the state.

“For the first time in 18 years, the Congress was in a fighting-fit form and we gave our best. Besides, the in-charge [RPN Singh] camped in the state for 40 consecutive days, which never happened in the past,” said the party’s state working president, Rajesh Thakur.

Jharkhand BJP spokesperson Pratul Shahdeo dismissed the contention that the ruling party was on the back foot on local issues and instead blamed the opposition alliance for polarising the electorate.

“We started with ‘Ghar Ghar Raghubar’ campaign and talked about stability and development in the last five years of the BJP government. But the Congress and JMM leaders started polarising the elections by talking negatively about Article 370 and we responded by exposing their double standards,” Shahdeo said.

He claimed that the alliance also hit the panic button after receiving feedback that minority voters were supporting the BJP in large numbers.

Political analysts said local issues dominated the poll discourse among a large section of voters during the elections. “Roti [bread], kapda [clothes] aur makaan [house] are important for all and they take precedence over national issues. Voters across the country have shown that they vote differently for national and state elections,” said LK Kundan, associate professor in the political science department at Ranchi University.

In the elections tor the 81-member Jharkhand assembly, the Congress contested 31 seats, the JMM 43 and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the third partner in the opposition alliance, seven. The BJP and the All Jharkhand Students Union, or AJSU, Party could not reach an electoral understanding and fought the elections separately.

“It is a ploy. They [BJP and AJSU] have been together for five years and will join hands after the elections. The people are seeing through their drama and will hand over a crushing defeat to them,” Sharma said.

Grand alliance energised after Jharkhand results; BJP on backfoot in Bihar, say experts.

source – hindustantimes.com

The assembly election result in Jharkhand has infused more energy in the grand alliance. The ‘Mahagathbandhan’ of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress overthrew the Raghubar Das-led BJP government in the state and has its eyes set on the 2020 assembly elections in Bihar.

On Monday night, RJD president Lalu Prasad, imprisoned in Ranchi’s Birsa Munda Central jail in connection with fodder scam cases, quietly congratulated JMM leader Hemant Soren and gave his blessings from a government hospital where he is undergoing medical treatment. As the votes were being counted, Lalu’s younger son and Leader of Opposition in Bihar assembly, Tejashwi Prasad Yadav, had predicted victory for Soren and congratulated him in advance.

Drawing a parallel between Jharkhand and Bihar, leaders of the Congress and the RJD observed that the Jharkhand’s poll verdict gave a clear message that they would have an easy win in Bihar also if they remained united and respected one other.

“Jharkhand poll reaffirmed the perception that GA (grand alliance) is a viable alternative people are looking for. After Jharkhand, it is now the turn of Bihar to banish the Nitish Kumar-led NDA,” said Congress MLC and AICC media panelist Prem Chandra Mishra.

RJD legislator Bhai Birendra, also the party spokesman, said that countdown of Nitish Kumar-led government in Bihar has started. “Nitish Kumar has lived his political innings. He is now irrelevant in Bihar. However, the results may help his JD(U) to bargain for greater stake in NDA in the state as well Centre,” said Birendra, ruling out any chance of Kumar’s return to the RJD-led coalition.

“The results in Jharkhand will have a direct bearing on Bihar’s elections as well. After the formation of government in Jharkhand, we will see how the JMM could play its role in unseating the NDA in Bihar,” said JMM general secretary Binod Pandey, adding that Sibu Soren-led party still had good clout among the electorate in Bihar.

The RJD has other reasons to feel elated as the JD(U) could not win even a single seat, despite contesting on 47. BJP’s another alliance partner, Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), too, contested on 50 seats but failed to open its account.

RESULTS TO CAST SPELL ON BIHAR

Union Home Minister Amit Shah had, in October, announced that the BJP will fight next year’s assembly election in Bihar in alliance with the Janata Dal (United) and under the leadership of the Nitish Kumar. Some political analysts say Kumar had started hobnobbing with the RJD after statements against him from BJP leaders. But, BJP seems to have realised that falling back on Kumar was a safer option in Bihar.

The BJP had sacrificed five seats to accommodate JD(U) in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. It had contested on 30 seats in 2014, won 22 seats with a vote share of 29.86 per cent wheras the JD(U) contested on 38 seats independently and got 16.04 per cent votes. It won on just two seats. Another of the BJP’s alliance partner in 2014, the LJP, contested on seven seats and won on six with a vote share of 6.50 per cent.

Analysts feel that the BJP not getting the numbers in Jharkhand will give it a tough time ahead. In Bihar, the saffron party will be on the backfoot.

But leaders of JD(U) and BJP rule out any breach in alliance in Bihar.

“The socio-economic and cultural identity of Bihar is completely different from that of Jharkhand. In Jharkhand, there was no alliance in NDA. But in Bihar, BJP president Amit Shah has already announced that the elections will be contested under Nitish Kumar who is a tested leader. Moreover, the Opposition here is not united,” said JD(U) leader KC Tyagi.

“The Jharkhand poll results won’t have any impact on Bihar because the demography and geography is divergent in both the states. The NDA government is working hard towards the development of Bihar and we will win the 2020 assembly elections comfortably,” said Bihar BJP spokesperson Nikhil Anand.

Political analyst D M Diwakar of A N Sinha Institute for Social Studies, however, opines that the results are going to make an impact in Bihar. “It will revitalise the grand alliance and help improve its performance. For the NDA, hard times lie ahead. The only solace is that they have cleared the air on chief ministerial candidate. The anti-incumbency has set in and they will have to re-think their strategy,” he said.

Diwakar feels that when it will come to seat-sharing for the assembly seats, the JD(U) will again have an upper hand. On the other hand, the BJP leadership by projecting Kumar, has shown that it was “desperate not to lose JD (U)”.